Shocking Unemployment Map

Watch this animated map of unemployment shown county by county for the entire US and weep.  It starts out before the recession officially began and slowly becomes a tidal wave of purple and dark gray.  Locally, Houston County went from light orange to purple in two years, which is 4.0-4.9 % to 7.0-9.9 %.  Won’t be long until it is mostly dark for the country.

The Bears Are Coming Out

123 banks have failed so far this year and despite the run up in stocks things are looking worse as the effects of the stimulus end.  Check out this post at The New Editor and watch the video of Meredith Whitney talking about the stock market.  Warning:  her analysis is not a happy thing to watch and she points out that there is no reason for the stock market to be going up.

I’ve long thought the stock market was divorced from reality and is based on the emotional attitudes held by gamblers. The fact that consumer credit has contracted more than during the Great Depression is a huge warning sign that we may be in an unprecedented economic collapse.  That this is being ignored by the investors is amazing.

Over in France, the bank Société Générale is warning their clients to prepare for a possible global economic collapse in the next two years. Basically the idea is that all the problems of the banks have been transferred onto the governments making them insolvent in turn. Quote of the article:

The bank said the current crisis displays "compelling similarities" with Japan during its Lost Decade (or two), with a big difference: Japan was able to stay afloat by exporting into a robust global economy and by letting the yen fall. It is not possible for half the world to pursue this strategy at the same time.

No, it isn’t possible and a lost decade is very possible for the entire planet, if not lost decades.

In previous posts, I’ve written about gold going up and that it isn’t a good sign. Martin Hutchinson at PrudentBear.com points out that the last time gold ran up so quickly in value was before the economic woes in the early 1980’s.  Only it is a lot faster this time and Hutchinson predicts $2000 an ounce will be hit in six months time. His belief is that once gold went over $1000 the point of no return was reached and that a second recession is guaranteed.  I’d argue that we never got out of the first one, that any recovery has been an illusion generated by shuffling nonexistent money around.

Once again, I wish I had good economic news to report.  I think what we are about to face is going to make the Great Depression look good by comparison.

A Very Cool Little Fighter

This a flight demo by a Hungarian pilot flying a JAS39C Gripen at RIAT earlier this year.  Great video of a terrific little plane that Sweden builds for multirole combat. 

 

I think it is the prettiest of the “Eurocanards” flying and fills a critical  need in size and capability.  Many countries can’t afford even medium sized fighters, instead flying smaller ones such as the F-5 Tiger and MiG-21 Fishbed.  A modern replacement for them has been needed for some time. This is what the F-20 aspired to be in the 1980’s and I believe the Saab Gripen is the realization of the dream of a  modern light weight fighter.

The only other competitor is the Chinese/Pakistani JF-17 which I highly doubt is as good a plane, being a radical derivative of the MiG-21. It says much that the Pakistani’s are now buying the larger and more modern J-10 from China instead of more JF-17’s.  Meanwhile, India’s LCA project is still far from service and already out of date.

Interestingly, the Gripen often ends up competing for contracts against bigger fighters such as the F-16C Fighting Falcon, F/A-18E Super Hornet, and France’s Rafale. Currently it is in service with Sweden, Hungary, the Czech Republic, and South Africa.

A new version with a more powerful GE-414 engine, AESA radar, more fuel, and redesigned landing gear is flying in prototype. The Gripen NG promises greater range and weapons load along with better avionics.

The 66% Rule: How to Select Republican Candidates for 2010

 

There is unrest amongst the grass roots and discontent with all politicians – not just Democrats.  At the moment, it looks good for the Republican Party but it is a long way until November 2010.  Things change and the unpredictable can alter any trajectory in politics.  Therefore, the Republicans need to be coming up with candidates who will stand for something, not just counting on the voters being angry with the other side.

Whether candidates are chosen via caucuses or primaries, the Republican Party needs to have a clear identity to present to the public.  While RINO hunting can be a valid sport there can be a tendency to go overboard in purity tests. Likewise, the “Big Tent” approach can lead to leftwing liberals like Dede Scozzafava running as a Republican. It would help if the GOP actually stood for something basic while still allowing a variety of candidates to be fielded in the very different districts that make up the political landscape.

I submit that we must use a variation of Reagan’s three legs of a stool test.  Reagan’s idea was that a Republican movement needed to be fiscally conservative, socially conservative, and defense hawks.  This is the ideal for a candidate and can be achieved in solidly red districts – in fact it must be the criteria there.

But what of weaker areas? Realistically, we have to face that there will be districts that a pure conservative cannot win. Still, we need a Republican who will vote most of the time with the caucus. By that, I don’t mean 51% of the time.  In those weaker districts a Republican who votes conservatively 66% of the time is the bare minimum.

In choosing a candidate, I have come to the conclusion the person must meet at least two of the following criteria:

1. The candidate must be fiscally conservative, no exceptions!  A true fiscal conservative will also favor small government and won’t do anything to grow government. This criteria is absolute and inflexible.

Next at least one of the following stances must be held:

2. The candidate is socially conservative.  This generally means pro-life, pro defense of marriage, and/or pro Second Amendment.  The beliefs must be solid and not based on pandering.

3. The candidate is a defense hawk who supports the military.  Our men and women in the armed forces need all the backing they can get as we confront terrorism and other threats.

Two out of three should give us conservative legislators who will work together well at the state level and in Congress. This is The 66% Rule.

Holding only one of these conservative credentials is not enough even in the bluest of districts.  In order for the Republican Party to have a cohesive identity and work together, there has to be common ground other than merely having the label “Republican.”  It isn’t enough to just win elections – the goal has to be advancing our political philosophies. Otherwise, the Democratic Party will continue to use divide and conquer tactics to get their legislation passed.

If we keep the Rule of the Three Legged Stool in solidly conservative districts and follow The 66% Rule for weaker districts, I believe Republicans can win in 2010 and 2012. More importantly, it will give us candidates who will advance the conservative cause and undo some of the damage done by the current Congress and administration.

While this is a broad and simplified set of criteria, anything more complicated becomes cumbersome and subject to constant amendments.  There will be “moderates” who will be upset at the rule and there will be “true conservatives” equally unhappy with it. It doesn’t matter. Things are at a dangerous point in our governance and we don’t have time to play internecine games that only strengthen the political Left. 

We need to keep things simple and focused while remembering that most of the country considers themselves conservative one way or another.  The public craves politicians who will stand for something and actually live by their words.  There was a whiff of desperation in the voting choices made in 2008, a hope that if everything was turned over to the Democrats things would be better.  Many Democrats shaded their stated positions toward the middle to get elected, much like President Obama did and more recently Owens in NY-23.  Once in place, they didn’t live up to their statements and went left.

The Republican Party lost its identity some time back and the voters haven’t forgiven us for it. We need to win the people over and to do that we have to have cohesion in our ranks. Until then, any victories we have will be short lived.  With a true identity, the Republican Party could retake power and stay there for some time.

Goodbye to the Equalizer

Edward Woodward passed away at 79.  I was a fan of his 1980’s show, The Equalizer, which was an entertaining series about a retired intelligence agent who uses his skills to help people in trouble.  Brains over brawn was the modus operandi and I enjoyed it a great deal.  Woodward made McCall a classy and formidable hero. Upon reading of his death, it made me wish I could see the series again.  Sadly, I can’t afford Netflix anymore so I can’t rent the first season.  Catch it if you can.

So How’s That Economic Recovery Going?

A lot of media spin has been about how we are recovering economically despite the lack of jobs. After all, the stock market keeps going up and it is the barometer of the economy.  At least that is what people assume, but there are many other indicators of economic health.

It isn’t often you see the words “world gold supply runs out.” In fact, I don’t recall ever seeing them until this article at The Telegraph. With less retrievable gold ore in the ground, it is going to be harder for nations to convert their financial reserves to hard metal.  Output is plunging at the mines, so the rush to invest in gold has a problem – there isn’t enough of the precious metal to go around.

That’s always been an argument I’ve had with goldbugs, that there isn’t enough of the metal to cover the currencies of the world. There is a possibility that silver will go back up to make up the slack, but money is an illusion whether it be made of metal or paper or electrons floating in computers. Faith is what sustains it and gives currency value. So what happens when you can’t convert the currently held currencies and they dwindle into nothing?  We may find out.

Speaking of running out of things, the FHA is running out of cash and may require – you guessed it, a bailout from the government. Oh yes, the housing market is still in trouble and there is fear they can’t cover loans due to growing unemployment. The critical quote of the piece:

The FHA’s cash reserves have plummeted to $3.6 billion, compared with $685 billion in outstanding insured loans - a ratio of 0.53 percent that is far below the 2 percent required by Congress and a fraction of the 6.4 percent reserve ratio in fiscal 2007.

Banks are usually closed down if they have that kind of ratio, so this is not good. With no signs of unemployment going down, we’ll be seeing more of these loans defaulting. So there will be a bailout using tax payers’ money.  Except we don’t have enough because revenues are down. But China will loan us the money, right?

Well, China is not very happy with the US right now.  They rightly have figured out that the weak dollar and low interest rates have dangerously ballooned stocks and property investments.  What we don’t need is more bubbles that will burst and that is precisely what we are getting. 

Not that China is really helping things themselves.  Ambrose Evans-Pritchard has an interesting and somewhat alarming commentary on the problems surrounding China’s exporting overcapacity.  We have too much supply and not enough demand from them so they are not taking up the slack from the West. Read it.

Fears of a double dip recession abound, but I still think we never came out of it in the first place.  It was just a plateau in the fall and we are going to see darker days before anything truly gets better.

One kind of darkness has already fallen on Australia. They went with a cap and tax scheme to lower carbon emissions and electricity prices skyrocketed. People can’t afford their bills and are being cut off with retirees being hit hardest. That will strangle their economy in no time flat. Right now they are experiencing what we will if similar legislation is enacted.

I wish I had good news to report.

Getting an Edge in Copyrights

I’m not happy with the way Intellectual Property (IP) rights are handled because I feel that the current laws are stunting creativity in a stagnant society.

An article at boingboing.net got my attention last week and highlights how trademark law can be abused. Edge Games hasn’t put out a real product in many years, but has terrorized anyone that dares to use the word “edge” in any videogame, movie, or comic book. They’ve been successful at this, gaining settlements with other companies for over a decade.

This is a truly bizarre story, especially if you read the full details over at ChaosEdge.  Mind you, it can be eye glazing but if you dig, you can find documented IP theft by Edge Games themselves! The strange sales (or lack of sales) by this company from their web store is an epic story by itself.

At least with EA’s involvement there is a chance these people will be shut down, but it shows how the current system can be gamed – no pun intended.  I’m wondering how this guy Langdell has made money from this.  He has to have to keep filing lawsuits, right?

Government Gone Wild

With various things going on including a very demanding abandoned kitten to care for, I let things slide as far as blogging goes.  The links to interesting bits of news will stretch back into last week as a result.

Serves New London Right

At Hot Air, Ed has a post filled with immense irony.  After the idiocy that was the Kelo ruling , the original case has turned into a classic bad joke. Pfizer got New London, CT to use eminent domain to take homes away from residents and now won’t be developing the property.  To make it even more painful, the jobs lured there by the deal are being moved to another town!

The Supreme Court badly damaged private property rights in America with this ruling and the end results show why government having absolute control over who gets to own what is foolish. Makes me wish the founding fathers had put something in the Constitution or Bill of Rights about private property.

Big Guy Picks on Little Guy, Government Doesn’t Care

Back when SEIU member continued the proud union tradition of beating people during a tea party protest, most of the media yawned about it.  Kenneth Gladney was the recipient of the attack because he dared pass out “Don’t Tread On Me” items outside a Rep. Russ Carnahan (D-CT) forum.  The left spun the story by claiming Gladney started the fight, but the police report says otherwise. Interesting to read the behavior of the SEIU members present, including another assault, resisting arrest, and one who tripped and tried to claim the police beat him!  The district attorney in St. Lois has yet to do anything about it and no charges have been filed despite the video and police report on the incident. This smacks of corruption and favoritism. Thank you Big Government for posting the report.

This Message Will Be Controlled

One thing that sets dictatorships and totalitarian states apart is they insist on absolute control of the news media. Censorship abound and everything has to be in line with what they want.  It may surprise people that totalitarians will suppress even those of the same ideological or political persuasion, not just their obvious opponents. No criticism is to small to be allowed. More and more the Obama Administration is showing these tendencies. Besides attacking Fox News there is the curious case of Indymedia, a left wing website. The demand by the Justice Department for information on people who browsed the site is a privacy rights nightmare list with the following info demanded: Social Security Numbers, bank account numbers, credit card numbers, and home addresses.  Read Ed’s post at Hot Air for the details of a truly bizarre story.

Secret Copyright Treaty Leaks

ACTA will affect Intellectual Property rights in the US and other countries beyond just dealing with counterfeit goods.  While this lecture at BoingBoing is a bit dry, it covers the concerns raised over this far reaching treaty. The idea of iPods being searched at the border is insane, but shows the reach of media companies into the government. Also, the ability to confiscate or destroy goods without compensating the owners is incredibly draconian. At around the 15 minute mark, the Internet provisions are discussed and I’ve touched on that before.

Orwell Predicted the Present

In Great Britain, phone companies and Internet Service Providers (ISPs) will be forced to keep every telephone call, web visit, email, and any other thing done on Internet on record for one year. Originally the ministers had wanted this stored on one central government database, but backed off from that. Even so, this quote is chilling to anyone who believes in privacy:

653 public bodies will be given access to the confidential information, including police, local councils, the Financial Services Authority, the Ambulance Service, fire authorities and even prison governors.

It is rapidly getting to the point where the only private communications in the UK will be face to face, for Big Brother is watching. The British are lost and only people fighting for their freedom will keep it here in the United States.

Updated Movie Reviews

I’ve been experimenting with adding pictures to my movie reviews and took the opportunity to revise or expand them in the process. Here are the links to the revised reviews:

The Watcher in the Woods

Forbidden Planet

The Black Hole

Stargate: Continuum

Over time I’ll be adding more reviews, in fact I have several written in the pipeline.  Expect reviews of Gojira, Godzilla, and Howl’s Moving Castle soon.

Why reviews?  I get very tired of all the gloomy news out there and need to write about more positive things.  Most of the reviews will be out of my personal DVD collection, so don’t expect a lot of negativity!

Veterans Day

In the aftermath of the Fort Hood shootings, Veterans Day seems a little more immediate than usual.  That shouldn’t be the case for we always have men and women in the armed forces serving around the world protecting our country and way of life.  Less visible are those who have served honorably and returned to civilian life, but my gratitude is just as great for their service.

After Vietnam, a lot of people turned against our soldiers and I remember the slow turnaround of that attitude in the 1980’s under President Reagan. Lately it has been a mixed bag as the country has polarized over Iraq and Afghanistan.  But I hope I’m correct in feeling that the majority of the country at least respects our fine service personnel.  Reading about the strange mugging of an Army reservist gives me hope.

Misc. - the Useful Abbreviation

One has to love the ability to type “misc.” instead of miscellaneous(which is only correctly spelled here due to Windows Live Writer’s spellchecker).  It is such a useful term too – it covers everything!

Yes, I’m making an excuse to post random unconnected links to stories interesting me today:

Read about stocks jumping to new highs on Yahoo and once reading the reasons for it felt vindicated in thinking the “recovery” is all about banks and the political class – not the peons.  They love the dollar collapsing; such wonderful patriots they are.  They also love blowing bubbles and we are going to see more pop with this irresponsible behavior.  People invested in stocks don’t care about anything but reaping a quick profit and that cannot bring about any long term improvement.

Twenty years ago, the Berlin Wall fell and the end of Communism in Europe had begun. Lech Walesa played a critical role in this and the former leader of Solidarity says some interesting things in an interview with Spiegal Online. His warning to the politicians is one that should be heeded.

At PajamasTV, Bob Owens has a nice rant only a gun nut will appreciate – so of course I enjoyed it a great deal.  It has to do with the “cop killer” label put on the FN Five-seveN (oy, the marketing gimmick) 5.7mm pistol in the reports on the Fort Hood shootings.  This is a pistol I would love to own as I’m a fan of velocity over mass, but Owens’ arguments are sound and I have a heavier caliber pistol for the same reasons.  I’m grateful Hasan fell for the hype, things could have been far worse.

People scoff at computer virus threats while disregarding the legitimate threat.  Frankly, the chance that your PC could be given a virus that downloads child pornography is frightening.  So if anyone reading this doesn’t have a firewall and antivirus program on their PC, please install one pronto!  Being framed for something as depraved as this should be motive enough to add some security.

Terrorism and Fort Hood

UPDATED

The media reaction to Nidal Malik Hasan’s attack on his fellow troops in Fort Hood has been disturbing to me.  Political correctness is acting like a lens distorting reality the way a funhouse mirror warps a reflection. As more facts emerge about Hasan, it is clear he was a jihadi. Someone just snapping from stress by proxy (what a ludicrous excuse) doesn’t try to contact al Qaeda months before shooting a bunch of American soldiers.  He doesn’t give away his belongings first and he doesn’t frequent strip joints like the 9/11 hijackers did.  Hasan did exactly that.


Many Islamic fundamentalists believe all your sins are forgiven on martyrdom, so they tend to party in forbidden ways.  That looks hypocritical to Western eyes, but it simply points out one of our cultural differences with the Islamic world.  Over at Forbes, Tunku Varadarajan has a must read piece on our problems facing what he dubs “going Muslim.”

UPDATED:
CNN proves the distorted lens by rearranging a wounded soldier's quote to make it look like he was unsure if Hasan yelled "Allhu akbar." Mudville Gazette has the details.

It isn’t like Hasan was the first to go on a killing spree in the name of Islam after 9/11. Next week on Tuesday the “D.C. Sniper” will be executed.  Seven years ago, John Allen Muhammad and his accomplice Lee Malvo  killed 10 people. Do people even remember this?  I wonder.

A big part of the problem is how the political left and their lapdogs in the media have depicted the war on terror.  J.R. Dunn at The American Thinker puts it better than I can.  I agree with him that relativism has done a great deal of damage:  allowing corruption to flourish and weakening our will to defend ourselves. Everything depends on the American people waking up.

I question whether another 9/11 would be enough.

Weekend Links: Around the World

The Nuclear Threat

The UN is wondering why they’ve found evidence that the Iranians have experimented with a radically more advanced nuclear warhead design than previously thought.  It is pretty clear they are playing for time to get weapons in production and the weak Obama administration is making it easier than ever. Not that President Bush was much better in dealing with them.  It will be up to Israel to defend themselves. There will be fallout one day, probably of the radioactive kind.

Over in Poland, nuclear fears are rising as well.  Russia practiced an invasion and nuclear missile strike on Poland back in September.  They even gamed out a pretext based on ethnic Poles rising up in Belarus.  Nothing is subtle with the Russians and this is clearly a threat being made to Poland. I wouldn’t be surprised if we see a repeat of the false flag operation used by the Nazis to justify invading Poland.  A weak US president make previously unthinkable objectives possible, unfortunately.

Rising Up Against Oppression

Over at Gateway Pundit, a collection of reports on continuing protests in Iran against their rulers.  This should have been bigger news, but the media isn’t interested in the story. Iran is not a stable country and that should be of concern to everyone. We need to be on the right side of this if things are to be kept from blowing up in the Middle East.  Sucking up to dictators in hopes they will become accommodating doesn’t work.

Call of Duty Set to Overwhelm the Gaming World

I have to say Call of Duty 4: Modern Warfare was a brilliant and disturbing video game.  Brilliant in execution and disturbing in plausibility, it put the player in the midst of an international crisis involving a nightmarish scenario of nukes, Russian civil war, and Middle East fundamentalism.  So it is no surprise the sequel is eagerly awaited, but the sales expectations of half a billion dollars worldwide in the first week is a shock.

I don’t play multiplayer so I can’t comment on the latter half of the article.  Still, if the single player experience is as good as the first one, I’ll get Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 -- when it gets very cheap.  It means a wait of several years, but I can afford to be patient. I literally can’t afford impatience in these cash strapped times.

Political Shenanigans

With Cap & Trade and ObamaCare unpopular with the voters, a lot of games are being played to ram them through before the recess.  Pelosi & Reid can’t afford to have Democrats go home and face their constituents before voting on the bills as they might get swayed to vote “No.”

One thing they don’t want out is the penalty for not buying mandatory health care under the House version of the health care bill.  It is freaking totalitarian, that’s all.

The campaign to neuter Fox News is still underway at the White House.  This has been denied, but with the previous actions by the Obama administration I think it is legit. They are determined to control the news at all costs, but I think they are making a huge mistake.  This kind of thing wouldn’t be leaked if it weren’t seriously resented.  The Chicago way is as blunt and heavy handed as the Russians actions in Eastern Europe. Totalitarians never tolerate criticism or the truth well.

Governing the Internet

Intellectual property rights are all the rage in governance right now.  Having been pushed by media conglomerates for some time now as their faltering products fail to earn enough moola, governments are moving to halt piracy of music on the Net.  The latest attempt is a stealth move under the guise of an anti-counterfeiting trade agreement (ACTA).  Basically, the idea is to force the internet service providers (ISP’s) to be held responsible when someone downloads an illegal copy of a tune or movie.  Before this the individual was held responsible and the ISP’s were immune to prosecution. 

Why is this a bad thing?  Well, the US government hid the details of what is in the treaty and the countries that actually counterfeit music and movies aren’t involved in the treaty.  So it does nothing about counterfeiting and is all about snooping into the contents of people’s computers.  The ISP’s will have to do that to keep from being sued. That’s a big civil rights issue and once the ability to do that is granted, it won’t go away and will be abused.

IP rights are okay for a limited time, I personally believe 15 years is good enough with an exception made on religious materials.  If people aren’t allowed to rest on their laurels, it will encourage them to come up with new material.  I’m a big fan of intellectual ferment and the marketplace of ideas, so limiting IP to a shorter span would be a true stimulus of creativity.  Right now it feels like the whole world is going through the motions and repeating itself.  Be nice to break free of that stagnation, wouldn’t it?

The secrecy involved is the real deal breaker.  They wouldn’t be secretive unless they were up to something illegal.  Though what is legal is becoming more of a “we say so” kind of thing rather than true application of jurisprudence.  I think we are seeing the money out of Hollywood and the music industry behind all this as they are losing money due to inferior products.  They won’t admit this and have to blame something for their failure. However, the consequences of this push may much bigger than they understand.