War Drums

As the world economic situation deteriorates, another problem is rising and that is the steady beat of war drums across the globe. Political, rather than economic, interests are the prime motivators as old grudges flare in some places and civil unrest lures in outside forces in others. The latest hotspot is one I did not see coming and would be ridiculous to fight a war over if it were not for changing geopolitical conditions.

Argentina is ramping up the rhetoric against Great Britain over the Falklands and it is getting more serious than any dispute over an island filled with sheep should get. After having lost the Falklands War in the early 1980’s, it appeared to be a nonissue until recently when South American countries began expanding their military arsenals. A steadily declining U.K. military is now unlikely to be able to defend their citizens living in the Falklands, so an opportunity has arisen for Argentina. Claiming the Brits are sending nuclear missiles to the area is an extraordinary claim, the kind that is usually ginned up for a war.

Another thing to consider is that they now have the backing of Brazil, which has become an economic and military regional power looking to expand their influence. There is a desire to get rid of all European influence in the area and also American influence. Throw in a presidential re-election campaign for Cristina Kirchner and things start getting restive.

While that little drama unfolds, the Obama administration is quietly preparing for war with Iran and an armed intervention in Syria much like what was done in Libya. That means bypassing Congress again and should be of concern to more people than it is. If we hit Syria, Iran will fight us since they have sent forces in to back the dictator Assad in what really has become a civil war. No matter what happens, I expect Islamic extremists to end up in control of Syria, just like Libya and Egypt.

Israel will most likely be forced to hit Iranian nuclear weapons facilities this year. Survival is an important thing to the Israelis and they need to protect themselves from the increasingly irrational Iranians. Civil unrest remains a fear in Iran and they recently cut access to large parts of the Internet in hopes of preventing more.

Asia is not exempt from all the “fun.” Continued over flights of neighboring countries territory by China is still causing tension and an arms race in the area. Their ships have been equally aggressive and have challenged Philippino sovereignty. Japan also has the Russians sending bombers over their territory as Russia tries to reestablish their might around the Kurile Islands. Oddly enough, tensions with North Korea appear to be abating or are on hold while the new regime sorts itself out.

Will any of these hotspots break out into actual fighting? I think the Middle East is the closest thing to a sure bet thanks to Iran and Syria. In the long run, Asia is building towards war, but internal stresses in China may derail that.

So why do I feel like the atmosphere is like that of the years leading up to World War I?

Drone Follies

Iran has put the RQ-170 Sentinel on display for the world to see. Yes, one of America’s most secret aircraft is in their hands. Video here. From that it looks like it may have landed gear up rather than crashed. The airframe looks completely intact though. It also makes me wonder if the virus going around the Air Force base might be related to it. Could it have been hijacked?

Something of interest to me is the fact that it is painted in a yellow sand color. That would suggest daylight operations for the top secret reconnaissance drone and a great deal of belief in its stealth abilities. Also interesting is the used of a radar scattering grid on the intake like the F-117ANighthawk had. This is a very low observable aircraft. So much for stealth being a magical shield.

This is up there with the Gary Powers U-2 shoot down in the early 1960’s. Now I assume Russia and China will be bidding on access to the drone, if they haven’t already.  You would have thought there would be a self destruct device in the RQ-170. This is embarrassing.

Full video follows:

RQ-170 Sentinel on Display in Iran

A Tense World

I’m going to preface this post with a bit of whining.  It is annoying that I’ve had multiple grim postings on this blog and I’d rather be writing about more positive things.  It is time for me to do another review just to break the monotony, so my next post will be a long delayed review on a Smallville episode from last season.

On to the dark and dreary…

A Latter-day Saints bishop in Fresno was murdered yesterday after services by a stranger asking to see anyone in charge at the Visalia 2nd Ward.  My prayers go out to his family and congregation.  With all the Mormon bashing ramping up because of Prop 8 and Glenn Beck’s growing popularity, I wouldn’t be surprised if this doesn’t get classified as a hate crime.  But it could easily be a suicide by police situation given the gloomy economic times.

Speaking of Glenn Beck, I’m not a fan of his.  But I thought his “Restoring Honor” rally was a very good thing and am glad it wasn’t a political rally like the left made it out to be.  It was an old fashioned revival and correctly made the point that the people of America need to get their act together if anything good is to be done.  We certainly can’t rely on governments to be moral authorities.  Predictably, the political left have savaged the event and tried to paint it as racist.  They completely missed the point and that is very sad indeed.

Meanwhile, the West continues to be clueless as to how the Middle East actually operates.  While all cultures have difficulty understanding each other, the governments of the West perpetually assume that everyone else wants the same things we do.  Foolish is a word that barely begins to describe that assumption. Watching the jockeying in the Middle East with Iran and Turkey making a bid for dominant influence in the area is fascinating and underscores the fractured divisions weakening the Arab states.  With little Arab unity they are unable to resist their rivals influence.  Syria’s falling into Tehran's sphere of influence would have been unthinkable decades ago.  This interview of Jonathan Spyer by Michael Totten illustrates some of the problems with America and Europe’s view of the Middle East.  It is lengthy and worth every minute spent reading it.

Ever wondered what the United States looked like during the lead up to the Civil War?  A panorama of Cincinnati, Ohio’s waterfront has been scanned in from daguerreotype photos made in 1848 and put out for the public to see.  That type of photographic process is an amazing thing in itself and the detail that can be pulled from the old plates is incredible.  It makes me wonder what modern lenses combined with the old technology could do.

Odds and Ends

Will be working on a post about the Tea Party in Winona last week and about the Republican Congressional District 1 endorsement convention this past Saturday to put up this week.

In the meantime, a few items that caught my eye the last two weeks:

A follow up on the couple beaten in New Orleans last week by leftwing protesters.  The Palin pin part of it has been debunked, but it is very clear this was a politically motivated attack. The mainstream media shows that they are well beyond simple bias by ignoring this one.  If conservative protesters had done this to a pair of Democrats it would be the overkill story for weeks.

Dr. Helen aka the Instawife has an interesting piece up about how psychologists are moving to social activism in their therapy.  This is damning stuff and worth checking out. The desire to control other’s lives is getting to be the hallmark of the left.

Speaking of controlling people, the FDA is going to start regulating salt in prepared foods.  This serves two goals:  controlling the population even in the most miniscule way and to inflate the number of government employees (they’ll need to hire more to administrate this, of course). Idiocy. Look for more of this under the guise of lowering the government’s cost of providing healthcare.

There is no way ObamaCare can be funded, it is simply impossible.  But the Democrats will keep trying and one way they want to raise taxes is by adding a VAT (Value Added Tax). That hasn’t worked out so well for the Europeans and is yet another way to retard the growth of an economy.  In our case, it would kill it dead. Best quote:

In 2008, the average resident of West Virginia, one of the poorest American states, had an income $2,000 a year higher than the average resident of the European Union, according to economist Mark Perry of the University of Michigan, Flint.

Oh yeah, we really need to emulate those Europeans.

Denial of reality seems to be a big part of leftwing big government.  Over in California they are doing their best to be like Europe and ignore the financial catastrophe they are in.  Entertainment comes first but the piper will have to be paid eventually.

Meanwhile, that unpronounceable volcano in Iceland is still hampering flying and a bigger eruption is possible.  But just how unsafe was it to fly?  Turns out that the grounding was based exclusively on computer models and nary a single weather balloon was sent up to get real data. The religion of computer models has already given us the fraud of man made global warming and now this is going on. Once again reality is being ignored in favor of theory.  I’m afraid science is dead.

The relationship between Israel and the United States is on life support as well.  The hostility of Obama and his cronies toward the Israelis  has been palpable of late and has generated a great deal of concern. I’ve been warning people he is slowly building a case for armed conflict with Israel and been greeted with dismissal.  Better look again, as this refusal by the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff to rule out shooting down Israeli planes crossing Iraqi airspace to hit Iran. The ghost of Jeremiah Wright is alive and well in the Obama administration.

Iran Burns 30 Years after the Revolution

A lot of things have happened in Iran during the Shia holiday of Ashura.  We very well could see another revolution or an incredibly bloody crack down by the Islamic government. I’ve been busy with FFT (Forced Family Time) this Christmas weekend and haven’t kept up on posting about what was happening. Now it is almost too much to report.

For the last week there have been extensive demonstrations against the current government, mainly by university students which is reminiscent of how the 1979 revolution that overthrew the Shah began. While there have been many protests since the fraudulent elections, things turned more violent. Attempts to rescue two men being hanged ended up with people being killed and reports the rescued men were shot dead.  There have been many arrests including relatives of powerful politicians and academics.

Let’s start with Michael Totten’s post at Commentary Magazine calling it Iran’s modern equivalent of the Battle of Karbala. In it he explains how the killing of demonstrators during Ashura has created an extremely powerful symbol:

Ashura is a Shia religious holiday, and it is not joyous. It is a day of lamentation that marks the date when the forces of the Umayyad caliph Yazid killed Hussein, son of Ali and grandson of the Prophet Mohammad, during the Battle of Karbala in the year 680. It’s one of the most infamous episodes in the struggle for power that permanently ruptured the house of Islam into its warring Sunni and Shia halves. The Shia – the partisans of Ali and his lineage – have been at war with the Sunnis – those who took the side of Yazid – for thirteen centuries.

Totten goes as far as saying that Iranian religious conservative are turning against the government.  That may explain the report that Ayatollah Khamenei is planning to flee to Russia.  If this is true, things are falling apart quickly.

But will the people of Iran prevail against their government?  Even if they do, will that change relations with the outside world?

My concern is that the Khamenei and Ahmadinejad will use total force to retain power, much like China did in Tiananmen Square twenty years ago.  Beyond that, the Iranian government is saber rattling quite a bit and have let Egypt know they will hit US bases in the Middle East if Israel bombs their nuclear facilities.

Iran is becoming very unstable and anything could happen as a result.  While I wish for the best for those who want more freedom and fair elections I also fear for their lives and those in countries around Iran. As it is, all we can do is wait and watch to see if this truly is a revolution or just a rebellion doomed to fail.

One thing is for sure and that it appears to be the beginning of a civil war.

Weekend Links: Around the World

The Nuclear Threat

The UN is wondering why they’ve found evidence that the Iranians have experimented with a radically more advanced nuclear warhead design than previously thought.  It is pretty clear they are playing for time to get weapons in production and the weak Obama administration is making it easier than ever. Not that President Bush was much better in dealing with them.  It will be up to Israel to defend themselves. There will be fallout one day, probably of the radioactive kind.

Over in Poland, nuclear fears are rising as well.  Russia practiced an invasion and nuclear missile strike on Poland back in September.  They even gamed out a pretext based on ethnic Poles rising up in Belarus.  Nothing is subtle with the Russians and this is clearly a threat being made to Poland. I wouldn’t be surprised if we see a repeat of the false flag operation used by the Nazis to justify invading Poland.  A weak US president make previously unthinkable objectives possible, unfortunately.

Rising Up Against Oppression

Over at Gateway Pundit, a collection of reports on continuing protests in Iran against their rulers.  This should have been bigger news, but the media isn’t interested in the story. Iran is not a stable country and that should be of concern to everyone. We need to be on the right side of this if things are to be kept from blowing up in the Middle East.  Sucking up to dictators in hopes they will become accommodating doesn’t work.

Call of Duty Set to Overwhelm the Gaming World

I have to say Call of Duty 4: Modern Warfare was a brilliant and disturbing video game.  Brilliant in execution and disturbing in plausibility, it put the player in the midst of an international crisis involving a nightmarish scenario of nukes, Russian civil war, and Middle East fundamentalism.  So it is no surprise the sequel is eagerly awaited, but the sales expectations of half a billion dollars worldwide in the first week is a shock.

I don’t play multiplayer so I can’t comment on the latter half of the article.  Still, if the single player experience is as good as the first one, I’ll get Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 -- when it gets very cheap.  It means a wait of several years, but I can afford to be patient. I literally can’t afford impatience in these cash strapped times.

Political Shenanigans

With Cap & Trade and ObamaCare unpopular with the voters, a lot of games are being played to ram them through before the recess.  Pelosi & Reid can’t afford to have Democrats go home and face their constituents before voting on the bills as they might get swayed to vote “No.”

One thing they don’t want out is the penalty for not buying mandatory health care under the House version of the health care bill.  It is freaking totalitarian, that’s all.

The campaign to neuter Fox News is still underway at the White House.  This has been denied, but with the previous actions by the Obama administration I think it is legit. They are determined to control the news at all costs, but I think they are making a huge mistake.  This kind of thing wouldn’t be leaked if it weren’t seriously resented.  The Chicago way is as blunt and heavy handed as the Russians actions in Eastern Europe. Totalitarians never tolerate criticism or the truth well.

Iran Burns

We are seeing an uprising of the people versus a tyrannical dictatorship posing as a democratically elected government. That is something that we saw happen after the fall of the Berlin Wall in Eastern Europe but it is now happening in Iran. The clashes are violent, with students and protesters being gunned down (WARNING: very graphic), yet President Obama refuses to do anything in words or deeds. His apologists claim it is to protect the protesters, but that is a naive belief, whether held by Obama or by people making excuses for him. Voting present is simply not an option when you are President of the United States of America.

His silence and carefully moderated remarks have emboldened the ruling elite, Supreme Leader Khamenei led chants of "Death to America!" in his Friday prayers, while their state run TV has purportedly run "confessions" from college students that they were trained and funded by the USA to start this. So much for not choosing sides.

Pray for the Iranian people as they fight and die for their freedom.

End Game Near?

The idea that Iran's influence in Iraqi politics has been growing along with the amount of arms they have smuggled in is getting harder to ignore, despite the desperate desire of both the Executive and Legislative branches of our government to avoid dealing with it. The latest sign that we may have lost the political war is posted about at Heading Right. If this petition holds up, support for the ground war will evaporate completely in the United States in short order. There is no doubt in my mind that Iranian money and arms are heavily influencing this, as our Congress has given our enemies proof that we are a weak willed and cowardly society. This has encouraged the Iranians and foreign jihadists no end, despite the astounding losses they are suffering. The sad thing is that the political left and quite a few moderates have forgotten the lessons of childhood playgrounds. The psychology of a bully scales up and now that we've shown our weakness, the bully will never leave us alone. That scaled up bully is Islamic terrorism and he's going to be wanting our lunch money on a regular basis after we abandon Iraq. Expect a "fortress America" mentality setting in and then being rather loudly blown up, as we can't even secure our borders. We may see a future like Israel's current situation, with suicide bombings and attacks becoming common.

We as a society are telegraphing our weakness very loudly at the moment, with the behavior of the Democrats in Congress, and the constant anti-war beat of our mass media. The drift to the Left over the war is also making the socialist fringe feel like they have a mandate here, while socialism is starting to lose its luster in Europe due to its colossal economic failures. Amazing, given that even the French have realized that it doesn't work well. All of this points to very bad times for our country in the near future as political strife undercuts our achieving anything constructive at home or abroad. The Democrats have sold their soul and are now selling out their country for political power. Nothing good can come of it and I wonder how long it will take the American people to wake up and realize what they did this last November.

Romney Acting Presidential

It is always fun to predict who will be the front runners for a presidential election and lately Governor Mitt Romney of Massachusetts is emerging from the pack. Hugh Hewitt noticed that Mitt had issued a wonderful press release denying state protection to former Iranian president Mohammed Khatami when he lectures on the eve of 9/11 at Harvard. If only President Bush had the intestinal fortitude to buck the State Department and bar this fundamentalist from our country! Unfortunately, the State Department still believes Khatami is a moderate and probably think they are wooing the moderates in Iran. The same people who are being forced out of all positions of power in government and education right now. But that's State, they are controlled by bureaucrats who believe that talking can solve every problem.

Enough with that, I want to talk about Gov. Romney. Despite his accomplishments in turning around the Salt Lake City Winter Olympics and taking a firm stand for conservative positions on gay marriage and health care reform, I admit I was suspicious of him. The reason why may surprise some -- it is because he is a Latter-day Saint. Now why would I be so wary of someone who is of the same faith I hold? It took me awhile to figure that out myself and no, it isn't just because Harry Reid is LDS too.

It is because I hold Mormons to a higher standard than I do other people. Our faith is more rigorous than most and more demanding of the individual due to our emphasis on accountability. As a result, I expect more honesty and compassion out of my fellow Church members, especially the active ones. More is expected of us due to our Church having a lay ministry and I'd like to think that we improve as people due to that service. Then there is an added layer of the history of persecution of Latter-day Saints, leading to a feeling that we will never be fully accepted by others, yet yearning for that very acceptance.

I wonder if Roman Catholics had the same feelings about John F. Kennedy when it first became apparent he would be seeking the nomination?

A Dangerous Season

Here it is, August 22, 2006. So far, the Iranians haven't blown anything up other than Kurdish villages during their "wargames". That doesn't mean Israel or the West is off the hook, though. From now until September 11th, the potential for terrorist activities and further war in Lebanon will increase. Iran is the key to this and they are doing nothing BUT saber rattling. Here's a link to excerpts from MEMRI that translate the latest from Iranian leaders in their own country's media. What's amusing is they claim that Article 11 of the Nuclear Non Proliferation Treaty allows countries to secretly build weapons if they fear they are threatened. Powerline shows that to be a lie by quoting Article 11, which would be hilarious if it wasn't such a serious situation. The "multi-faceted" offer Iran gave the UN today won't do a thing to stop their progress in building the bomb, not when Ahmadinejad is making statements like this:

If you want to have good relations with the Iranian people in the future, you should acknowledge the right and the might of the Iranian people, and you should bow and surrender to the might of the Iranian people. If you do not accept this, the Iranian people will force you to bow and surrender.

At least Jerusalem wasn't nuked today and there wasn't a test detonation in the hinterlands of Iran. But it is clear they plan to make the world do what they want.

Update: Iran did attack another country's property. It wasn't the Israelis, but the Romanians! This is interesting if strange, it looks like Iran is starting to flex their military muscles with an aim at controlling the oil in the Persian Gulf.

August 22 and Iran

First, please go here

I think Lewis does a good job of summarizing why August 22, 2006 may be a major day in world history. The current leadership in Iran either belong to or are influenced by a minor Shia sect that believes that through promoting chaos, the coming of the Mahdi (the 12th Prophet or Hidden Imam) will be provoked. Why do they consider that a good thing? Well, when the Mahdi emerges from his well he is said to inhabit (by that sect), Jesus will be his assistant who will lead him to the center of Tehran. From there, a final reckoning will begin and Islam will take over the world, with the unbelievers converted or slain. This is the Shia Muslim equivalent of Armageddon.

Being a devout Latter-day Saint, it always baffles me when I see truly religious people thinking they can manipulate God into doing things. While prayer is a form of direct communications, it is a supplication without a guarantee of success. It is truly humble and a plea for help. This belief that He can be coerced or forced into doing something is incredibly arrogant and misguided.

There has been messianic overtones to Ahmadinejad's statements since he first became mayor of Tehran and at times he acts as if he is a prophet himself. This is blasphemy in Islam and why the mullahs there haven't cracked down upon him is a mystery. They have supreme power in Iran, yet I almost get the impression they are afraid of him. Or more ominously, they actually believe in him. Either way, it is clear they have an unstable, dictatorial peacock in charge -- one who may have the A-bomb in his possession soon.

Why Is Iran Destroying Satellite Dishes?

It seems the news out of Iran is ever alarming, now they are destroying privately owned satellite dishes. The official reason is to prevent Western culture from corrupting the people, but the dishes have been around for years. The timing looks suspicious, what with the recent increase in censorship of the news available in Iran on nuclear issues.

What You Don't See on Broadcast TV

I just read the full transcript of Mike Wallace's unedited interview with President Ahmadinejad which aired on C-SPAN. It appears much was cut out for the 60 Minutes segment. Thank you Vital Perspective for posting this for everyone to read, as it shows just how arrogant and combative Iran's "elected" leader is. Not to mention how openly vain he is, which reminds me all too much of a certain European leader who rose to power in the 1930's. This is a must read for anyone concerned with the state of world affairs right now, as Iran is most likely to become the next nuclear power and controls Hezbollah in Lebanon.

What is really chilling is the verification that the letter he sent President Bush was a classic call to Islam. This is what a true Muslim is supposed to do before attacking an infidel country, so theologically speaking, Ahmadinejad is now permitted to strike first without guilt. Having already called for the destruction of Israel, it is clear that we are next on the list. A letter much like that one was sent to Germany as well, which I found strange - they aren't a direct threat in any way or form. Unless he thinks the Nazis are still in power and really thought they would come over to his side. In that case, he may be crazy as well as fanatic.

Sadly, I don't see anything to indicate anyone will hit Iran before they get the bomb, Western culture is simply too weak to do what is necessary despite how apparent the danger is. We simply have become too civilized.