Odds and Ends 4-10-2012

Since I have not done this in awhile, I will throw some links up to what has caught my attention lately.

Locally, the apple orchards that are such a part of the region are under threat thanks to the cold snap this week. The combination of unusually warm temperatures followed by unusually cold ones is lethal to apple buds. Not much can be done but hope there will be Honeycrisp’s this year.

Ah, those wacky Japanese using high tech to better humanity. Oh wait…

At least they are diverting resources from making robot women. Don’t get me started there.

Having watched the dot com bubble of the late nineties, I have been getting the feeling of déjà vu again. It turns out I am not alone in worrying over how the latest Internet startups are over priced. I suspect we are headed for a dot com bubble 2.0.

The media in all its forms is increasingly dishonest as things crank up for the elections this year. Race baiting is one of the more evil ways to stir things up and it is being employed fully as a rallying tactic for the left. Outright fabrications are being spread around to inflame tensions. The ends justifying the means rarely leads to anything good, but people never seem to learn that.

The mainstream media cannot be trusted to be guardians of the truth or public good and I wonder if they ever were worthy of it. Given how partisan they have become, they resemble the state controlled media of totalitarian states more and more. Maybe the idea that yellow journalism died out was an illusion in the first place.

One thing that has bothered me for a very long time is how humanity lost its willingness to take risks by the end of the 20th Century. We need to go to space, take chances, colonize, and build. Yes, people will die in the endeavor, but there are far worse things than death. One of them is stagnation. So it is sad to see plans from the 1950s aimed at going to Mars and realizing there is little chance that will happen this century.

I am probably not alone in that. An anime adaptation of Space Brothers has started airing in Japan and streaming worldwide at Crunchyroll. It is a rare thing these days to see an anime featuring characters that are all adults and dealing with adult problems. Set in the near future, it is about a pair of brothers hoping to make it to the Moon and beyond as astronauts. Warm and sentimental, it also catches some of the current cultural malaise in Japan. Man, it makes me wish we had real space programs and not the token jokes we have today.

Turn of a Friendly Card

Gambling is alluring to most people and has gotten more popular than ever with high stakes poker shows on cable television and casinos sprouting up all over the place. But the biggest mecca for gambling isn’t Los Vegas. It is Wall Street.

Watching the markets claw their way to positive gains today, I’m struck by how addictive behaviors make their presence felt in even what should be the most sober of locations. There is no good economic news and only vague hopes of another stimulus or some such reassurance from the Fed. Speculation has lost what rationality it had at some point in the past and I’ll leave that to someone to pinpoint.

It eerily reminds me of partying before a disaster hits. Or in this case, during the opening stages of one.

Ah, well. One can’t live life without taking a few chances. I’ve made a few gambles in life that didn’t pay off, though for the most part they weren’t financial ones. My latest to go awry is an attempt to make my pistol accurate.

The Ruger P94 I have had since the late 90’s has never been accurate. At best, I could throw bullets with the same results. But through trial and much error, the problem has been narrowed down to sights that hit at least 6 inches too low.

I’d hoped adding Hogue grips would help. Today I finally got to test the modified pistol out with them. They did help in the horizontal, oddly. But the sights are still horrible. Even making a triangle with the dots only elevated shots to three inches low. Lining up the dots is supposed to be dead on at 7 yards but doing that took me completely off the paper 7 out of 10 shots.

Now I’m debating selling or trading in the gun and getting a different used pistol. With my friend’s Springfield XDM, I wasn’t just on paper on the first try but shot a nice fist sized group about two inches low. So my trigger technique does need work but it isn’t 6” plus bad.

I also broke the plastic head of my small crafting hammer while trying to remove the rear sights during an experiment to see if I could change them out myself. Insult to injury or injury to insult?

So $20 down the drain on the grips. It would be another $130 to get new adjustable sights and pay a gunsmith to put them on. I’m not enthused.

Things Fall Apart

One inescapable reality is that all things break down at some point. Some can be repaired, some can be replaced, some are lost forever, but this is what happens in life.

Yesterday our internet access went down and so did one phone line as we discovered this morning. Good thing we called in since it turned out to be a cabinet problem that affected others too. But repairs took awhile and service wasn’t restored until after 2PM. For which I’m grateful.

Timing wasn’t great since I had been hoping to see how world stock markets reacted to Friday’s downgrade of the U.S.A. by Standard & Poors. Not surprisingly, they didn’t take it well and the Dow Jones was down by over 500 at one point. As I type, a minor rally failed at it is down 500 again which is a loss of 4.4%. Nasdaq and the S&P 500 are being hit harder, both down more than 5%.

People can point politically motivated fingers all they want, but this is debt driven and can’t be fixed. An ineffectual, incompetent, and detached president doesn’t help, but this is the result of decades of financial folly. It can’t be easily fixed. Most likely it can’t be fixed and we’ll have to take our lumps

Such is life and the current generations have had it easy to this point. Many of our ancestors would shake their heads at our mistakes, but most of all at how spoiled we are. Time to pull ourselves up by our bootstraps and stop looking to others to solve our problems.

Sad thing is we no longer have true leaders to get us out of this mess.

Updated

Mere moments after posting this, the Dow dived to a 632 point loss or 5.53% down.

Updated Again

London is burning. “Youths” are doing their best to destroy everything they can and beat as many people they can lay hands on. The citizens are defenseless against this and I can’t think of a better argument in favor of the 2nd Amendment.

It isn’t just finances that are falling apart in the world. Order is beginning to as well.

Moody Minnesota

It had slipped my attention that the state of Minnesota was downgraded from AAA to AA+ by Moody’s last month. So it was somewhat surprising to find out that the financial outlook for Minnesota was revised to negative on Monday. This is not a good thing when looking for bonding in the future.

Strange how my state has become something of a predictor for political problems lately. What’s clear is that the public’s love of having divided government doesn’t work so well during a time of economic crisis.  Big governments are slow to react to anything and divided governments are even worse.

So we are seeing that stop gap measures aren’t effective in keeping good credit ratings, which should be a warning sign to the Federal government. There is a very high chance that there will be a downgrade there as well.

I should see how the stock markets are taking things now that the debt ceiling raise was signed by President Obama…

Well, the Dow has plunged below the 12,000 mark and the S&P has shed most of its gains for the year. Not surprising since there is no good economic news to be had. Gold just went higher with South Korea buying more, it is at $1644.50 an ounce. That’s absurdly high and a huge warning sign.

Interesting times.

Only Now Are They Getting It

There has been no economic recovery.  People need to get that through their heads.  The stimulus was based on the mad idea that you can spend your way out of debt when you have no savings to fall back on. Needless to say, it failed utterly.

Via The Drudge Report, CNBC has a headline that tries to downplay the content of the article.  What Drudge had up is the quote of the article that should have been used.

We’re on the verge of a great, great depression.

Duh. We’ve been in the opening stages of one for years now.  Smoke and mirrors can only get you so far and it looks like people are finally tumbling to the disaster that is already upon us. Take the latest job reports for example. Captain Ed at Hot Air has a good summary of what is going on with that.  Instead of 177,000+ jobs added to the private sector, 38,000 was the figure for May.

It isn’t surprising that the stock market is down from the latest data. What is surprising is how long it took for them to start noticing there was a problem. But I wouldn’t be surprised if they buried their heads in the sand again.  Look at the tone of the first article begging the bears not to rock the boat. It strikes me as desperate.

A great depression is the best case scenario, in my opinion. We may be seeing the eventual fall of the Modern West.

Dubai Financial Problems Get Worse

I’m still watching with keen interest what is going on with the collapse of Dubai’s commercial real estate ventures.  Dubai World is not going to be bailed out or their debt backed up by the government of the small nation. $60 billion in liabilities will not be paid back and this is going to cause quite a few problems for the UK banks.  The Bank of Scotland may be on the hook for billions of dollars but things are murky yet.

An intervention by the central bank of the United Arab Emirates has helped markets recover, but I don’t see how a liquidity infusion will help a solvency problem in the long term.  It may not even help in the short term other than to temporarily reassure the stock markets.  Whatever the case, this may be another canary in the coal mine. I fully expect bank failures to come out of this.

Black Friday and a Hint of Black Tuesday

Another day and more bad economic news.

It is the day after Thanksgiving, when minds turn toward shopping for Christmas presents that often go to oneself. It will be interesting to see how all the sales go, some stores and online firms have had them going all week already. My gut feeling is that they will be down because high unemployment combined with overextended credit means no money to spend.  Personally, I can’t afford gifts or even to mail Christmas cards this year, unless I find a way to get extra cash – which is very hard for a chronically ill disabled guy.

But I doubt I’m alone in this boat.  One of the shoes I’ve been predicting to drop has been the hidden problems with commercial real estate loans. Nobody has been more ambitious in growing their commercial land than Dubai and things have come to a head there.  The city state of Dubai has asked for a suspension of their loan payments for six month and that has spooked the world markets today.  UK banks are particularly at risk due to this, but the ripple effect looks to be large and spanning the globe.  The Dow Jones opened with a 200 point slide before stabilizing around 150 points down.

Meanwhile, the dollar continues to slide.  I wouldn’t consider Japan to be that strong an economy due to its going into deflation. So if the US dollar is so weak against it what does it say about the US economy?  We will be seeing considerable inflation as this continues and that in turn will depress domestic spending even further.

Oil is down as well, going below $75 a barrel due to the Dubai crisis. I remember when a crisis was a much bigger thing, but that is the media for you.  Gold and precious metals are down for the same reason but that will be temporary as foreign central banks move out of the US dollar.

All the ballyhooing going on by various governments that the recession is over seems to be more propaganda (and wishful thinking) than reality.  The instability still remains and the world market reactions reflect it. With commercial real estate investments set to blow up and only a lull in the home loan failures, much will go wrong with in the next 10 months.

So How’s That Economic Recovery Going?

A lot of media spin has been about how we are recovering economically despite the lack of jobs. After all, the stock market keeps going up and it is the barometer of the economy.  At least that is what people assume, but there are many other indicators of economic health.

It isn’t often you see the words “world gold supply runs out.” In fact, I don’t recall ever seeing them until this article at The Telegraph. With less retrievable gold ore in the ground, it is going to be harder for nations to convert their financial reserves to hard metal.  Output is plunging at the mines, so the rush to invest in gold has a problem – there isn’t enough of the precious metal to go around.

That’s always been an argument I’ve had with goldbugs, that there isn’t enough of the metal to cover the currencies of the world. There is a possibility that silver will go back up to make up the slack, but money is an illusion whether it be made of metal or paper or electrons floating in computers. Faith is what sustains it and gives currency value. So what happens when you can’t convert the currently held currencies and they dwindle into nothing?  We may find out.

Speaking of running out of things, the FHA is running out of cash and may require – you guessed it, a bailout from the government. Oh yes, the housing market is still in trouble and there is fear they can’t cover loans due to growing unemployment. The critical quote of the piece:

The FHA’s cash reserves have plummeted to $3.6 billion, compared with $685 billion in outstanding insured loans - a ratio of 0.53 percent that is far below the 2 percent required by Congress and a fraction of the 6.4 percent reserve ratio in fiscal 2007.

Banks are usually closed down if they have that kind of ratio, so this is not good. With no signs of unemployment going down, we’ll be seeing more of these loans defaulting. So there will be a bailout using tax payers’ money.  Except we don’t have enough because revenues are down. But China will loan us the money, right?

Well, China is not very happy with the US right now.  They rightly have figured out that the weak dollar and low interest rates have dangerously ballooned stocks and property investments.  What we don’t need is more bubbles that will burst and that is precisely what we are getting. 

Not that China is really helping things themselves.  Ambrose Evans-Pritchard has an interesting and somewhat alarming commentary on the problems surrounding China’s exporting overcapacity.  We have too much supply and not enough demand from them so they are not taking up the slack from the West. Read it.

Fears of a double dip recession abound, but I still think we never came out of it in the first place.  It was just a plateau in the fall and we are going to see darker days before anything truly gets better.

One kind of darkness has already fallen on Australia. They went with a cap and tax scheme to lower carbon emissions and electricity prices skyrocketed. People can’t afford their bills and are being cut off with retirees being hit hardest. That will strangle their economy in no time flat. Right now they are experiencing what we will if similar legislation is enacted.

I wish I had good news to report.

Misc. - the Useful Abbreviation

One has to love the ability to type “misc.” instead of miscellaneous(which is only correctly spelled here due to Windows Live Writer’s spellchecker).  It is such a useful term too – it covers everything!

Yes, I’m making an excuse to post random unconnected links to stories interesting me today:

Read about stocks jumping to new highs on Yahoo and once reading the reasons for it felt vindicated in thinking the “recovery” is all about banks and the political class – not the peons.  They love the dollar collapsing; such wonderful patriots they are.  They also love blowing bubbles and we are going to see more pop with this irresponsible behavior.  People invested in stocks don’t care about anything but reaping a quick profit and that cannot bring about any long term improvement.

Twenty years ago, the Berlin Wall fell and the end of Communism in Europe had begun. Lech Walesa played a critical role in this and the former leader of Solidarity says some interesting things in an interview with Spiegal Online. His warning to the politicians is one that should be heeded.

At PajamasTV, Bob Owens has a nice rant only a gun nut will appreciate – so of course I enjoyed it a great deal.  It has to do with the “cop killer” label put on the FN Five-seveN (oy, the marketing gimmick) 5.7mm pistol in the reports on the Fort Hood shootings.  This is a pistol I would love to own as I’m a fan of velocity over mass, but Owens’ arguments are sound and I have a heavier caliber pistol for the same reasons.  I’m grateful Hasan fell for the hype, things could have been far worse.

People scoff at computer virus threats while disregarding the legitimate threat.  Frankly, the chance that your PC could be given a virus that downloads child pornography is frightening.  So if anyone reading this doesn’t have a firewall and antivirus program on their PC, please install one pronto!  Being framed for something as depraved as this should be motive enough to add some security.