Shocking Unemployment Map

Watch this animated map of unemployment shown county by county for the entire US and weep.  It starts out before the recession officially began and slowly becomes a tidal wave of purple and dark gray.  Locally, Houston County went from light orange to purple in two years, which is 4.0-4.9 % to 7.0-9.9 %.  Won’t be long until it is mostly dark for the country.

The Bears Are Coming Out

123 banks have failed so far this year and despite the run up in stocks things are looking worse as the effects of the stimulus end.  Check out this post at The New Editor and watch the video of Meredith Whitney talking about the stock market.  Warning:  her analysis is not a happy thing to watch and she points out that there is no reason for the stock market to be going up.

I’ve long thought the stock market was divorced from reality and is based on the emotional attitudes held by gamblers. The fact that consumer credit has contracted more than during the Great Depression is a huge warning sign that we may be in an unprecedented economic collapse.  That this is being ignored by the investors is amazing.

Over in France, the bank Société Générale is warning their clients to prepare for a possible global economic collapse in the next two years. Basically the idea is that all the problems of the banks have been transferred onto the governments making them insolvent in turn. Quote of the article:

The bank said the current crisis displays "compelling similarities" with Japan during its Lost Decade (or two), with a big difference: Japan was able to stay afloat by exporting into a robust global economy and by letting the yen fall. It is not possible for half the world to pursue this strategy at the same time.

No, it isn’t possible and a lost decade is very possible for the entire planet, if not lost decades.

In previous posts, I’ve written about gold going up and that it isn’t a good sign. Martin Hutchinson at PrudentBear.com points out that the last time gold ran up so quickly in value was before the economic woes in the early 1980’s.  Only it is a lot faster this time and Hutchinson predicts $2000 an ounce will be hit in six months time. His belief is that once gold went over $1000 the point of no return was reached and that a second recession is guaranteed.  I’d argue that we never got out of the first one, that any recovery has been an illusion generated by shuffling nonexistent money around.

Once again, I wish I had good economic news to report.  I think what we are about to face is going to make the Great Depression look good by comparison.

A Very Cool Little Fighter

This a flight demo by a Hungarian pilot flying a JAS39C Gripen at RIAT earlier this year.  Great video of a terrific little plane that Sweden builds for multirole combat. 

 

I think it is the prettiest of the “Eurocanards” flying and fills a critical  need in size and capability.  Many countries can’t afford even medium sized fighters, instead flying smaller ones such as the F-5 Tiger and MiG-21 Fishbed.  A modern replacement for them has been needed for some time. This is what the F-20 aspired to be in the 1980’s and I believe the Saab Gripen is the realization of the dream of a  modern light weight fighter.

The only other competitor is the Chinese/Pakistani JF-17 which I highly doubt is as good a plane, being a radical derivative of the MiG-21. It says much that the Pakistani’s are now buying the larger and more modern J-10 from China instead of more JF-17’s.  Meanwhile, India’s LCA project is still far from service and already out of date.

Interestingly, the Gripen often ends up competing for contracts against bigger fighters such as the F-16C Fighting Falcon, F/A-18E Super Hornet, and France’s Rafale. Currently it is in service with Sweden, Hungary, the Czech Republic, and South Africa.

A new version with a more powerful GE-414 engine, AESA radar, more fuel, and redesigned landing gear is flying in prototype. The Gripen NG promises greater range and weapons load along with better avionics.

The 66% Rule: How to Select Republican Candidates for 2010

 

There is unrest amongst the grass roots and discontent with all politicians – not just Democrats.  At the moment, it looks good for the Republican Party but it is a long way until November 2010.  Things change and the unpredictable can alter any trajectory in politics.  Therefore, the Republicans need to be coming up with candidates who will stand for something, not just counting on the voters being angry with the other side.

Whether candidates are chosen via caucuses or primaries, the Republican Party needs to have a clear identity to present to the public.  While RINO hunting can be a valid sport there can be a tendency to go overboard in purity tests. Likewise, the “Big Tent” approach can lead to leftwing liberals like Dede Scozzafava running as a Republican. It would help if the GOP actually stood for something basic while still allowing a variety of candidates to be fielded in the very different districts that make up the political landscape.

I submit that we must use a variation of Reagan’s three legs of a stool test.  Reagan’s idea was that a Republican movement needed to be fiscally conservative, socially conservative, and defense hawks.  This is the ideal for a candidate and can be achieved in solidly red districts – in fact it must be the criteria there.

But what of weaker areas? Realistically, we have to face that there will be districts that a pure conservative cannot win. Still, we need a Republican who will vote most of the time with the caucus. By that, I don’t mean 51% of the time.  In those weaker districts a Republican who votes conservatively 66% of the time is the bare minimum.

In choosing a candidate, I have come to the conclusion the person must meet at least two of the following criteria:

1. The candidate must be fiscally conservative, no exceptions!  A true fiscal conservative will also favor small government and won’t do anything to grow government. This criteria is absolute and inflexible.

Next at least one of the following stances must be held:

2. The candidate is socially conservative.  This generally means pro-life, pro defense of marriage, and/or pro Second Amendment.  The beliefs must be solid and not based on pandering.

3. The candidate is a defense hawk who supports the military.  Our men and women in the armed forces need all the backing they can get as we confront terrorism and other threats.

Two out of three should give us conservative legislators who will work together well at the state level and in Congress. This is The 66% Rule.

Holding only one of these conservative credentials is not enough even in the bluest of districts.  In order for the Republican Party to have a cohesive identity and work together, there has to be common ground other than merely having the label “Republican.”  It isn’t enough to just win elections – the goal has to be advancing our political philosophies. Otherwise, the Democratic Party will continue to use divide and conquer tactics to get their legislation passed.

If we keep the Rule of the Three Legged Stool in solidly conservative districts and follow The 66% Rule for weaker districts, I believe Republicans can win in 2010 and 2012. More importantly, it will give us candidates who will advance the conservative cause and undo some of the damage done by the current Congress and administration.

While this is a broad and simplified set of criteria, anything more complicated becomes cumbersome and subject to constant amendments.  There will be “moderates” who will be upset at the rule and there will be “true conservatives” equally unhappy with it. It doesn’t matter. Things are at a dangerous point in our governance and we don’t have time to play internecine games that only strengthen the political Left. 

We need to keep things simple and focused while remembering that most of the country considers themselves conservative one way or another.  The public craves politicians who will stand for something and actually live by their words.  There was a whiff of desperation in the voting choices made in 2008, a hope that if everything was turned over to the Democrats things would be better.  Many Democrats shaded their stated positions toward the middle to get elected, much like President Obama did and more recently Owens in NY-23.  Once in place, they didn’t live up to their statements and went left.

The Republican Party lost its identity some time back and the voters haven’t forgiven us for it. We need to win the people over and to do that we have to have cohesion in our ranks. Until then, any victories we have will be short lived.  With a true identity, the Republican Party could retake power and stay there for some time.

Goodbye to the Equalizer

Edward Woodward passed away at 79.  I was a fan of his 1980’s show, The Equalizer, which was an entertaining series about a retired intelligence agent who uses his skills to help people in trouble.  Brains over brawn was the modus operandi and I enjoyed it a great deal.  Woodward made McCall a classy and formidable hero. Upon reading of his death, it made me wish I could see the series again.  Sadly, I can’t afford Netflix anymore so I can’t rent the first season.  Catch it if you can.

So How’s That Economic Recovery Going?

A lot of media spin has been about how we are recovering economically despite the lack of jobs. After all, the stock market keeps going up and it is the barometer of the economy.  At least that is what people assume, but there are many other indicators of economic health.

It isn’t often you see the words “world gold supply runs out.” In fact, I don’t recall ever seeing them until this article at The Telegraph. With less retrievable gold ore in the ground, it is going to be harder for nations to convert their financial reserves to hard metal.  Output is plunging at the mines, so the rush to invest in gold has a problem – there isn’t enough of the precious metal to go around.

That’s always been an argument I’ve had with goldbugs, that there isn’t enough of the metal to cover the currencies of the world. There is a possibility that silver will go back up to make up the slack, but money is an illusion whether it be made of metal or paper or electrons floating in computers. Faith is what sustains it and gives currency value. So what happens when you can’t convert the currently held currencies and they dwindle into nothing?  We may find out.

Speaking of running out of things, the FHA is running out of cash and may require – you guessed it, a bailout from the government. Oh yes, the housing market is still in trouble and there is fear they can’t cover loans due to growing unemployment. The critical quote of the piece:

The FHA’s cash reserves have plummeted to $3.6 billion, compared with $685 billion in outstanding insured loans - a ratio of 0.53 percent that is far below the 2 percent required by Congress and a fraction of the 6.4 percent reserve ratio in fiscal 2007.

Banks are usually closed down if they have that kind of ratio, so this is not good. With no signs of unemployment going down, we’ll be seeing more of these loans defaulting. So there will be a bailout using tax payers’ money.  Except we don’t have enough because revenues are down. But China will loan us the money, right?

Well, China is not very happy with the US right now.  They rightly have figured out that the weak dollar and low interest rates have dangerously ballooned stocks and property investments.  What we don’t need is more bubbles that will burst and that is precisely what we are getting. 

Not that China is really helping things themselves.  Ambrose Evans-Pritchard has an interesting and somewhat alarming commentary on the problems surrounding China’s exporting overcapacity.  We have too much supply and not enough demand from them so they are not taking up the slack from the West. Read it.

Fears of a double dip recession abound, but I still think we never came out of it in the first place.  It was just a plateau in the fall and we are going to see darker days before anything truly gets better.

One kind of darkness has already fallen on Australia. They went with a cap and tax scheme to lower carbon emissions and electricity prices skyrocketed. People can’t afford their bills and are being cut off with retirees being hit hardest. That will strangle their economy in no time flat. Right now they are experiencing what we will if similar legislation is enacted.

I wish I had good news to report.

Getting an Edge in Copyrights

I’m not happy with the way Intellectual Property (IP) rights are handled because I feel that the current laws are stunting creativity in a stagnant society.

An article at boingboing.net got my attention last week and highlights how trademark law can be abused. Edge Games hasn’t put out a real product in many years, but has terrorized anyone that dares to use the word “edge” in any videogame, movie, or comic book. They’ve been successful at this, gaining settlements with other companies for over a decade.

This is a truly bizarre story, especially if you read the full details over at ChaosEdge.  Mind you, it can be eye glazing but if you dig, you can find documented IP theft by Edge Games themselves! The strange sales (or lack of sales) by this company from their web store is an epic story by itself.

At least with EA’s involvement there is a chance these people will be shut down, but it shows how the current system can be gamed – no pun intended.  I’m wondering how this guy Langdell has made money from this.  He has to have to keep filing lawsuits, right?