The Shutdown

The big news in Minnesota is the state government shutdown due to an inability to get a budget passed. As I expected, the media is backing Governor Dayton and one of the main line of attacks is hammering on incessantly about the closure of state parks during the popular camping season of the 4th of July weekend. All very predictable and probably very effective in swaying public sentiment. Portraying the Republicans as only cutting spending when they actually presented an increase in spending is all part of the dishonest game.

I have to give credit to the state Republican leadership who didn’t cave in despite knowing this was exactly what Dayton wanted, contrary to his protestations to reporters. The surprising thing is how many Republicans I know who didn’t think the shutdown would happen. When a reversed version of this happened while Pawlenty was in office in 2005, the Democrats used it to great advantage to vilify the Republican party and it was believed it contributed to the rout of the GOP in 2006. Of course Dayton was going to return to that playbook!

In the end, there is a high probability that doing the right thing on holding back spending will damage Republican chances statewide in 2012. The power of the media is still great and that can’t be ignored. For all the talk of how the new methods of communication like Twitter and Facebook have changed things, the old partisan media is still where most people get their information. However, there is a lot going on nationally that will effect the local races, especially the economy. That keeps things unpredictable for the moment.

Frankly, I don’t think the public has the intestinal fortitude to deal with the extensive cuts that are really required and we will see Minnesota and the nation collapse into economic ruins. Cynical pandering and class warfare are already being used to buttress the Left’s insane devotion to Keynesian economics. Spending when you have no savings will never get a person, a state, or a nation out of debt. So all of that stimulus into the economy just made things worse and yes, both political parties are to blame for it. You would have thought the lessons of the 1970’s would have been remembered.

Dark times are ahead, far darker than most expect because it is a systemic problem with how our government “works.” People look to the demonstrations and riots in Europe while wondering if it can happen here. It can and could get much worse with the Left’s history of violence.

I would like to be wrong about this.

A Memorable and Unpredictable Election

Since I was up until 3:00 A.M., I’m hoping I have some semblance of coherency writing this post.  My father and I spent the evening with our State Representative Greg Davids with other supporters of his (kudos to Bonnie for being such a great hostess).  We’ve been doing this since election night in 2006, which unfolded like a horror movie  as the Democratic tsunami took Greg and most of the other state Republicans out of office.   I imagine that was the feeling in many a DFL victory party last night that turned into funerals when both the state house and senate went from veto proof majorities for them to Republican majorities.

I refused to make any solid predictions this year when asked by friends and political activists because at some point I realized none of the data coming in fit anything I’d seen before.  Combined that with a very strange atmosphere of smoldering resentment toward all politicians that I found amongst the average citizen of the area and I concluded this was going to be a strange election.  Even the political activists didn’t have much passion, aside from some of the Tea Partiers.   I knew the Republicans would win and win big nationally, but Minnesota looked bad.

Thanks to Mark Ritchie’s incompetence (or is it something more sinister?)  at managing the Secretary of State office, results for our local counties of Fillmore and Houston trickled in very slowly if at all on the SoS website.  That meant phone calls and trips to the local county courthouses to find out what was going on.  Houston County was forced to email results in because the line for the counting machines to the state capitol was dead.  That made for a long evening watching national and statewide races seesaw back and forth.

In the end, we saw the voters of the United States punish the Democratic Party for their ignoring the will of the people and following an extreme left wing agenda. That agenda is over, even though Republicans only took the U.S. House.  The gains in the U.S. Senate were large enough to make things very difficult for certain Democrat Senators to toe the party line when they are looking to get re-elected in 2012. 

The bigger news is that many state legislatures and governorships flipped to the GOP.  Why is this bigger news?  2010 is a census year and that means federal and state redistricting of voting districts.  With their penchant for gerrymandering, the Democrats had to hold on to everything they had to keep those districts or tamper with Republican dominated ones. Now Republican dominated legislatures will control the redistricting in many critical states and Minnesota.  Never thought I’d see that!

I’m pleased to say Houston County went completely red this election.

On to some specific races:

Greg Davids won HD-31B outright despite having two opponents. Steve Kemp (DFL) and Al Hein (Ind) split the liberal vote but even that didn’t matter as Greg won 53% of the vote for a clear knock out.  Surprising, I thought it would be tighter.

Rhett Zenke put up a good fight but Gene Pelowski HD-31A will never be knocked out as he is the last of the conservative Democrat breed.  At least Rhett won in Houston County and I hope he sticks around after redistricting.

Jeremy Miller upset Sharon Ropes in SD-31 which surprised many. This one didn’t surprise me, I knew Miller would win a close race and it was very close.  Congratulations on winning and securing the state senate for us, Jeremy!

Randy Demmer made it close against Tim Walz in CD-1, but enough people buy into Walz’s phony moderate act to keep him in office.  There was a poisoned atmosphere the unfairly hurt Randy that originated in the 2006 endorsement campaign that I think affected things. But the biggest problem is that unless we find a multimillionaire to self finance, Walz will always have a ridiculous money advantage. The union money borders on the infinite there.

The governor’s race is going into automatic recount with Emmer trailing Dayton by half a percent.  This race went bad because “moderate” Republicans decided to go out and get Horner elected.  His 12 % didn’t come from Dayton like some activists insisted, but mostly from Emmer.  But this gets uglier.  Hennepin County managed to have 180,000 more ballots cast than there are registered voters when there was only 58% turnout statewide.  This stinks of voter fraud and I predict the recounts will get ugly.

Those 180,000 votes would be enough to change the outcomes of the state constitutional offices as well.   As it stands, they all remain in the hands of the DFL.

That leads me to point out a problem that Minnesota has – we don’t have clean elections and haven’t for some time. The corruption and fraud in the Twin Cities has spilled out to affect smaller cities in the state as well.  Voter fraud is extremely hard to prove because there are very few safeguards against it in the system.  Voter ID is desperately needed here and would prevent it up front.

Finally, a comment on two races that gained national attention.  In Nevada, Harry Reid won when he shouldn’t have.  In Delaware, Coons destroyed O’Donnell easily.  Both those candidates were poor choices and in O’Donnell’s case, became a litmus test for purity amongst some conservatives.  Those who pointed out her Grand Canyon sized flaws were shouted down and accused of being RINO’s.  Quality of character matters and should matter to those of use who are conservatives.  Just because someone says things we want to hear doesn’t make them a good candidate or trustworthy.  That lesson needs to be driven home before November 2012 comes around.

Why?  Because the American public hates Republicans almost as much as they hate Democrats.  Republicans have to come through on fiscal issues or else they will be dumped out of office too. I expect the electorate to fragment over the next few years and there will be growing instability if the GOP screws up again.   Hostility toward the federal government is growing in proportion to the expansion of it.  Big government has been rejected along with Barack Obama’s radical agenda.  All newly elected Republicans better keep that in mind because the public is watching.

Good News in the MN Governor’s Race

Norm Coleman isn’t going to run after all.  I, for one, am very relieved to read this as I think it would have been a disaster. There would have been a revolt amongst the activists and Tea Partiers which would have dragged down other races.

Odds are that Marty Seifert will get the endorsement but things could change by convention time.  It will be interesting to gauge the mood at the precinct caucuses on February 2 and that may give a clearer picture.  Depending on who the new delegates and alternates are there could be a big shakeup in what direction the state GOP will go.

I think anyone who isn’t a fiscal conservative will be dead meat.

Raining Friday Links

Don't know if I'm up to posting a real essay today, as I'm waiting for the rain to stop to mix a mad scientist brew of sand/concrete and Sheetrock plaster to repair the hole in my bedroom ceiling. Finally tore all the plaster down from the water damaged areas and was pleased to find the lath in very good condition, with only some mold. One repaired cheap sprayer and some bleach water later it was left to dry overnight. I suppose I should take photos of it now for the classic before and after shots -- that's assuming my improvised plastering methods work!

While I assume only bots are reading this blog, I'm going to start posting links to things I find interesting on the Net in case any human eyeballs ever find their way here.

First up, a video link to Milton Friedman on Donahue back in 1979. Friedman lays out why only capitalism works very succinctly and to great effect. He also quickly lays out why government isn't the answer.

Bolstering that last point -- the automakers are having to back the "Cash for Clunkers" program. It is a fine example of how the U.S. government runs things that they are having to be bailed out of their own stimulus program. GM being involved makes this even more surreal.

"Peace of Mind. Piece of Happiness." That's the slogan for the Japanese government's new ad campaign to sell their national debt to their populace. The Telegraph rather waggishly asks what slogan the UK could use.

On a more local note, Marty Seifert was in La Crescent as part of his campaign for Governor of Minnesota. I hadn't realized the number declaring to run was in the dozens! On the Republican side, I think he has the edge at the moment, coming off of successfully holding the caucus together in the Minnesota House of Representatives during the last session. Time will tell, of course.

The Rochester Tea Party Patriots will be holding a Health Care Freedom Rally Saturday at Noon in Rochester. Click on the link for details!

Related to Tea Party activities and health care concerns, across the Mississippi Representative Ron Kind D-WI had 800 people to deal with at his townhall in Tomah Thursday. From the article, it sounds like he got an earful. This shows how more intensely opposed the public has become to government expansion of health care. I don't remember this kind of civic involvement back during HillaryCare. Of course, the country wasn't broke back then and didn't have a possible second Great Depression looming.

On a lighter note, I've been watching how people slavishly buy the latest Apple iPod or iPhone when there are usually superior products for much less money out there. What I wasn't aware of is how technologically inferior products on the US market are compared to overseas. Just another sign of America's decay, as the article points out our falling rate of broadband penetration. Don't know if I agree on the "Wal-Mart factor" so much, I think being an 80% service economy might play into this. Or maybe it is that we have so many wide open spaces to play with that we don't need gadgets for entertainment as much as crowded Asia.

As I've gotten older, the less enchanted I've become with intellectual property rights. It seems that instead of coming up with more new and innovative product, individuals and corporations want to keep making money off of old things. With the rise of file sharing then torrenting and piracy of music, movies, television, books, and software this is surely being eroded. While I don't advocate piracy, I do think there needs to be some limits. Now the biggest torrent site, the Pirate Bay, is preparing to go legal. Reading the comments tells me that things have gone past being just college students looting music and there is a rebellion against any regulation of content. How much of it is ideological and how much is just greed is the question.

Last two articles were found on Blue's News, a gaming and tech website that occasionally has interesting oddball items.

A Mitigated Disaster?

Well that was brutal. The American people voted their emotions and the Iraq war, with a smattering of "culture of corruption/throw the bums out" populism being the cause. This certainly wasn't an election of "all politics are local" nature. Only one candidate I predicted as winning actually won, as the center swung over to vote for the Democrats. We lost the US House, probably the US Senate, the Minnesota House, and the bulk of the governor's races. Even sheriff's races over in Wisconsin saw almost all the Republican candidates defeated. This was a total rejection of the GOP and punishment for not having a swift victory in Iraq.

So why aren't I calling it an unmitigated disaster? Look at how the referendums on marriage went. All seven states passed amendments defining marriage as between a man and a woman. This indicates the growing conservatism of the country as a whole, not a tilt to the left. What we are seeing is a punishment of the GOP from the voters, the equivalent of taking the belt to the child that erred. This debacle means the Republican leadership will have to listen to their base and grassroots, instead of taking them for granted. Fiscal responsibility being a huge issue there.

It was a perfect storm of war fatigue, growing isolationism, the six year itch, and a masterful propaganda campaign by the media against the Right. The growing influence of the Blogosphere was not enough to counter the last and nothing could counter the others. There is going to be a lot of second guessing, but I'm of the opinion nothing could have prevented what just happened. The campaigns were run well for the most part and we simply lost. That's politics!

Oddly enough, this has led me to re-evaluate the leadership who didn't prevent WWII. Neville Chamberlain now appears less the fool than an elected official truly representing the will of his people. We are in a time that has certain analogues to the world situation of the 1930's (maybe even the 1830's domestically) and I now know that the unavoidable is unpreventable as well. We think our governments and officials have the power to do just about anything, but they are as subject to the movements of history as the rest of us. So, Neville, I forgive you for "peace in our time" as you were doing what the British populace wanted.

I still like Winston Churchill better, but he was constantly getting thrown out of office. Heh, usually for speaking truth to power.

Well, I was going to post why Brenda Johnson won, but that turned into a rout and not in our favor. We ran a tight, focused campaign that did everything right and with an exceptional candidate. The other candidates made terrible tactical and strategic decisions, allowing us to control the overall campaign. It just turned out this was never our race to win, the DFL won everywhere in the area except for Steve Swiggum's district. Even the environmentalist independent candidate, Kevin Kelleher, didn't have a prayer in the face of what was happening. I really expected him to do better than he did in certain areas, but the DFL got the angry vote.

The same anger at those in power tilted the local sheriff's race toward the outsider who ran simply as an outsider. My favored candidate had concrete ideas and plans, but is considered part of the establishment so he didn't have a real chance either.

This really was an angry populist election and things usually go bad after one. Our foreign policy will be hamstrung now and I fear whatever chances we had at success in Iraq will be erased. Iran and Islamic extremists will correctly view this election as proof of American weakness, which will entice them to get even bolder. Very dark times are ahead for us and I can safely say most of the American people don't understand just how bad it will be. Weakness is always rewarded with pain and going isolationist means a world of pain will come knocking on our doors.

My consolation is that the Democrats ran a lot of conservative candidates who will be shut out of power by the far left leadership. We'll see some schisms in the next two years and the infighting will be brutal. Hopefully, a purging of the free spenders in the Republican ranks will occur as well. Adversity breeds character and we need some character building in the GOP. Another thing is that the voters may be opting for gridlock, as I don't see a mandate on left wing social issues. For instance, here in Minnesota Governor Pawlenty narrowly won re-election while the House was given to the DFL and their majority increased in the Senate. That means that a Republican president is a likely outcome in 2008.

Election Day Predictions

I meant to post this last night, but forgot to as a result of watching Heroes instead. Much has been made of the idea that the Democrats will sweep to power in this mid-term election, with phrases such as "tidal wave of blue" being bandied about. I've never believed that would happen and have been a lone voice of optimism in some of the circles I run in. This election will not be a great success story for the Democrats as they are truly out of touch with the majority of America. They've spent a great deal of time avoiding the issues, refusing to put forth any kind of serious plans for even their pet causes, such as ending the war in Iraq. That's not going to get the independent swing vote, in my opinion. I am going to stick my neck out and say that both the House and Senate will remain in GOP control -- due to the Republican base being a lot more motivated this year. It is apparent that the base will call due on this favor as well, so it will be very interesting to see what happens.

Locally, I'm very happy with how things are going, with only Mark Kennedy's US Senate bid being in trouble. Governor Pawlenty will win and was always going to win, but Mike Hatch's meltdown with the MSM in Minnesota clinches it beyond a doubt. Gil Gutknecht will beat his very liberal opponent, Tim Waltz, by possibly double digits. Mary Kiffmeyer and Pat Anderson look solid and I'm hoping Jeff Johnson can squeak out the win for Attorney General over Hatch's hand picked and forced upon the DFL candidate Lori Swanson. Our local State Representative, Greg Davids looks to have an easy victory over Ken Tschumper (calling corn farmers who invested in ethanol "Dairy Queens" is a bad, bad move). The State Senate race is much tighter, but everything has gone according to plan for Brenda Johnson's campaign. I fully expect her to win and will go into the details of why after today.

Local voter turnout will be high due to a hotly contested county sheriff's race and county commissioner's seats being fought over. There is a great deal of anger at the local officials and primary turnout was nearly twice as much as usual. It is no lie that the higher a turnout in an election, the more often Republicans win -- so election night results are going to be interesting to watch.

Meanwhile, the Democratic machine apparently is back to their same old tricks in Philadelphia.

And the Diebold voting machines are looking bad in Tennessee, surprise, surprise.