Relying on Drones Is a Bad Idea

Drones are starting to replace combat jets, but is it a wise decision?

One of the debates in military circles is whether or not manned aircraft have a long term future in combat.  The main idea is that remote controlled drones can be sent to fight without jeopardizing any American lives in the process.  They will be cheaper to manufacture and we won’t ever face an enemy with a significant air force again are parts of that theory.

I have problems with the argument, both on overall cheapness and the idea that all wars will be like Iraq and Afghanistan from now on.  The latter is foolishness because history says the next war will be unlike the previous one you fought, at least as far as the United States goes.  As far as being cheap, the drones have to be as they have an astronomical loss rate.  While that data is over two years old, I highly doubt Predator losses have improved significantly.

Then there is the whole concept of remote control being vulnerable to disruption.  We haven’t seen control of a drone being taken over by hostile forces, but they have successfully hacked the video feed of Predators.  The day will come when there will be a true hack rather than leeching video like a satellite TV pirate and what then?

That photo above is of a Predator pilot and instructor in the control station for the MQ-1.  He sits in a room watching monitors and pilots the drone via satellite. I believe having a human in the aircraft allows for many more contingencies to be dealt with.  You can’t hack a human and they can react much more quickly if they are in a real cockpit rather than a virtual one thousands of miles away. That flexibility simply cannot be replicated.

Then there is the “what if” of satellite jamming and destruction.  China has shown they can shoot down satellites as have we. Getting a replacement up is far more expensive and difficult than getting an airplane in the air.  I fear we are witnessing an over reliance on high technology that could be catastrophic against a powerful opponent such as China or Russia.

A more practical “what if” of facing an opponent with a real air force.  Drones are easy prey for manned jet fighters as the following video shows:

 

The answer to that is to use a stealthy drone as shown by the recently revealed RQ-170 Sentinel.  I find it strange that they are testing it in Afghanistan where there are no radars or fighters to evade.  Perhaps they are hopping over the border into Iran.

Still, there is a lack of flexibility inherent in such a design.  We’ll never see CAS (Close Air Support) effectively carried out by a drone.  Their slowness makes them effective only in environments we completely dominate in the air and their ability to respond to a changing threat is minimal.

Then there is the inevitability of them being hacked some day.  Everything networked gets hacked at some point, it is the nature of our time. The rest of the world has gotten very tech savvy and really are only limited by their budgets.  Just a couple of days ago, Twitter was hacked by Iranians.  While that isn’t a military organization, they do have active security experts protecting the network after some embarrassing lapses.

Lest you think I despise all drones, I don’t.  They have their uses but are too limited to be replacing fighters, bombers, and attack aircraft.  Reconnaissance is their forte and there they excel, but at quite a cost in airframes. 

One day this debate may be looked back at in much the same way the fiasco of going to missile only jet fighters is.  Generals, technicians, and politicians got overly enamored with technology and it failed to live up to exaggerated expectations. Going all remote control will suffer the same judgment in history, but we need to fight for programs like the F-35 Lightning II.

Manned aircraft will never be obsolete as long as the fog of war exists – and that will never go away.  Yes we will lose pilots because the nature of war means casualties.  That is unavoidable and a painful truth.  We can’t afford to lose our ability to fight a wide range of wars from fear of casualties.

The secret to our military’s success is only partly due to technology.  Most of it is due to flexibility and the supreme competency of our troops.  Often they have to make orders given them by isolated generals and politicians work in the field.  To continue doing that, they need to be fast moving and flexible.

Drones are neither fast moving or flexible, so relying on them primarily for an air force will be disastrous for the troops on the ground. Ask someone on the ground whether they’d like a Predator or a Strike Eagle backing them up.  I bet they’ll choose the fighter every time.