War Drums

As the world economic situation deteriorates, another problem is rising and that is the steady beat of war drums across the globe. Political, rather than economic, interests are the prime motivators as old grudges flare in some places and civil unrest lures in outside forces in others. The latest hotspot is one I did not see coming and would be ridiculous to fight a war over if it were not for changing geopolitical conditions.

Argentina is ramping up the rhetoric against Great Britain over the Falklands and it is getting more serious than any dispute over an island filled with sheep should get. After having lost the Falklands War in the early 1980’s, it appeared to be a nonissue until recently when South American countries began expanding their military arsenals. A steadily declining U.K. military is now unlikely to be able to defend their citizens living in the Falklands, so an opportunity has arisen for Argentina. Claiming the Brits are sending nuclear missiles to the area is an extraordinary claim, the kind that is usually ginned up for a war.

Another thing to consider is that they now have the backing of Brazil, which has become an economic and military regional power looking to expand their influence. There is a desire to get rid of all European influence in the area and also American influence. Throw in a presidential re-election campaign for Cristina Kirchner and things start getting restive.

While that little drama unfolds, the Obama administration is quietly preparing for war with Iran and an armed intervention in Syria much like what was done in Libya. That means bypassing Congress again and should be of concern to more people than it is. If we hit Syria, Iran will fight us since they have sent forces in to back the dictator Assad in what really has become a civil war. No matter what happens, I expect Islamic extremists to end up in control of Syria, just like Libya and Egypt.

Israel will most likely be forced to hit Iranian nuclear weapons facilities this year. Survival is an important thing to the Israelis and they need to protect themselves from the increasingly irrational Iranians. Civil unrest remains a fear in Iran and they recently cut access to large parts of the Internet in hopes of preventing more.

Asia is not exempt from all the “fun.” Continued over flights of neighboring countries territory by China is still causing tension and an arms race in the area. Their ships have been equally aggressive and have challenged Philippino sovereignty. Japan also has the Russians sending bombers over their territory as Russia tries to reestablish their might around the Kurile Islands. Oddly enough, tensions with North Korea appear to be abating or are on hold while the new regime sorts itself out.

Will any of these hotspots break out into actual fighting? I think the Middle East is the closest thing to a sure bet thanks to Iran and Syria. In the long run, Asia is building towards war, but internal stresses in China may derail that.

So why do I feel like the atmosphere is like that of the years leading up to World War I?