Bitter Cold, Low Blood, and the Beating of Drums

I’ve fallen behind in posting, so I’m throwing together a variety of subjects into this one to save time. Surviving winter has become a priority thanks to another bitter cold snap dubbed a “polar vortex” by the know nothing media. –35 below wind chills along with wood pellet supplies being depleted locally led us to purchasing corn to burn in the pellet stove. Figuring out the rate to feed the kernels to the fire pot has been difficult, but at least we have supplemental heat to offset the incredibly expensive LP gas during this latest cold snap.

Speaking of temperatures, Dad is doing well with the chemotherapy, but his white blood cell count is down so he’s having to monitor his temperature in case of fever. If he runs a high temperature he is to head straight for the emergency room. Other than that, he’s still running me ragged.

First Flight for J-31, China’s Second Stealth Fighter

I was reading the Telegraph and ran across the news that the J-31 prototype has flown. Anybody who thinks we don’t need the F-35 needs to wake up about now. The aircraft is a pretty bird, typical of Lockheed’s designs.

Looks way too much like an F-22 to be a coincidence!

I also found the first comments on the video at YouTube to be informative:

:D Now, america has a match. Finally, they can't push their way around. There's someone that can stop them.

GimiGlider 57 minutes ago

arise n may our blood n flesh build the new Chinese great wall.

long live China!

megaoceanpark 1 hour ago

THE MOTHERLAND RISES

CCPJAYLPHAN1994 2 hours ago

Nationalism is very strong in China these days and there is an arms race slowly ramping up in Asia due to it. South Korea and Japan are working on stealth fighter prototypes (actually closer to concept testbeds) while looking at the F-35 for possible procurement.

Interesting times.

Global Tensions Rising: China and Japan

Things seem to be escalating quickly over a group of islands, with one Chinese general telling his troops to prepare for war with Japan. This looks awfully calculated given the other aggressive actions in the region, but there is a component to it that is not traditional posturing. Instead it is an aspect of asymmetrical warfare being given a test run with Japan as a proxy for the United States.  Asymmetrical warfare involves using methods other than overt military force to bring down a foe perceived as more powerful. Propaganda, cyber warfare, and attacks on financial infrastructure are all key parts of this approach.

The latest tiff has led to threats of using Chinese ownership of Japanese government debt to bring them to their knees. Do not think this is disconnected from the U.S.A., for yesterday’s demonstrations briefly attacked the Ambassador to China’s car. The demonstrators knew what they were doing and chanted anti-American slogans during the incident.

With the two largest American bond holders in an intense war of words that could go hot to some degree (how hot? Ask the Chinese.), this is not something that should be ignored right now. The threats being made to undermine Japan’s economy can be made against us.

It should be noted that such a threat only works if a war does not actually follow. In war time, all debts to an enemy are declared void. Quite a tricky balancing act for China’s rulers, eh?

China Doesn’t Just Copy Electronics: The J-21

The military aviation world got a surprise a couple of years ago when the Chinese government took the wraps off of the J-20 stealth fighter, but that is nothing compared to what just showed up. Roughly in the F/A-18 Hornet size range and possibly a competitor to the F-35 Lightning II strike fighter, it is clearly derived from stolen data from Lockheed and subcontractors of the F-22A Raptor program. That is a scaled down F-22 if I have ever seen one with a radome more like the F-35. The proportions made a lot of us on the Net think it was a Photoshop at first, but I had a pit in my stomach when I studied the photos and better ones came out.

I knew our defense programs has been thoroughly compromised by the Chinese, but seeing the tangible results has been an unpleasant experience. As far as cyber security goes, our most classified and protected programs are in the hands of a hostile foreign government. It makes you wonder if the federal government is competent at anything at all.

Meanwhile, China continues to push claims on disputed territories with no fear of being countered.  With the continued aggression in the Pacific against neighboring countries, is it any wonder an arms race has begun in the region?

Pulling on the Dragon’s Tail

Anonymous went after the Chinese government in another coordinated attack on a large amount of websites. Given how much cyber warfare is conducted by that government, I would not be surprised to see Anonymous get hacked thoroughly in retaliation. There is a strong nationalist streak that has been inculcated in the populace for the last couple of decades which means there will be plenty of retaliatory attacks from outside the government as well. Break out the popcorn, this could get very interesting.

China Going Backwards

It has been fashionable in multiple circles to believe that China will take over the title of most powerful nation during this century. Much has been made of their economic growth and of their acquiring companies, land, and ports in other countries. This has presented an impression of an unstoppable juggernaut backed by the reality that they have become the main manufacturer of goods in the world. But does this mean China is ready or able to take over the lead?

I do not think so. Despite their growing military aggression in Asia, there are cracks appearing. With protests sporadically appearing in different regions, the specter of civil unrest has cast a long shadow across the very large country. In December, the village of Wukan rose up against land seizures and managed to make international news. That inspired another uprising in the nearby city of Haimen despite knowing they would be beaten by police.

It is no wonder that the authorities are spooked  for they have witnessed successful uprisings in Arab countries this past year. They too sit on a powder keg of poor and oppressed citizens. But what is interesting to me is that the latest uprisings are in in southern China, which is supposed to be the wealthy part of the nation.

Another intriguing tidbit of information is that the wealthy are looking to escape the country in the future. From other things I have read, there is a sense of fear that another peasant rebellion could happen. So we have the wealthy prepared to pull the handle on their personal ejection seats at the first sign of serious unrest.

So when President Hu wrote a piece saying that China is under cultural attack from the West and then the government restricts television broadcasts in order to present a more pure socialist message it made my antenna go up. This strikes me as being both a reaction to domestic control problems and preparations for conflict. The latter could be internal or external, with the latter being of particular concern to me.

It is not unknown for nations to attack others to bleed off internal pressures that have become too difficult to regulate. However, this may not be the conventional bombing or invading of another country kind of attack. The communists running China have been orchestrating cyber attacks on other countries for years. Asymmetric warfare is at the heart of Chinese military planning, being a theory of fighting a foe who is more powerful by using unconventional means. Right now, that means using cyber warfare against America.

Frankly, I do not think that will do a thing to vent social pressures at home. So the odds of an open confrontation with the United States to whip up patriotic fervor are increasing. While the OWS idiots focused on the spurious one percent here, the income disparities in China make us look well balanced by comparison.

With a housing bubble bigger than the one that popped here and a massive population that are truly dirt poor, China has problems too big to easily fix no matter how much state control is imposed. Actually, state control rarely fixes problems and just breeds more from what I have seen. Aggravating this is how they are driving out Western companies and nationalizing companies again. Wealth and power are being consolidated in the hands of an elite few, as is typical with socialist systems. It is sadly reminiscent of Orwell’s Animal Farm.

With Europe and the United States poised for even worse financial problems in 2012, China will become even more unstable as the buyers for their manufactured goods dry up. November and December saw drops in manufacturing there, so those ballyhooing increased manufacturing in the States should take a reality check, stat. Demand is still not coming back. The fact that Hu and company think that the US is deliberately taking economic hits to undermine them financially does not help things either.

An unstable China will be prone to doing things that would be out of character for them in recent decades. People in the West have forgotten the China that invaded their neighbors Vietnam and India. Suffice it to say, nobody in the region has though. There is quite a military build up going on throughout Asia right now due to Chinese naval aggression at sea.

I would like to be a fly on the wall in some of the intelligence briefings in the region. Even the cash strapped Philippines government is looking to get F-16 fighter jets because of what has been going on.

It is going to be an interesting year.

Productive Pain

Living with chronic pain is not pleasant, no matter how you look at it. But there is pain and then there is pain from actually doing things. The last two days I’ve hurt quite a bit because I’ve been doing some physical activity to make up for lost time.

It is all yard related, except for taking down my filthy blinds and deciding replacing them was easier than cleaning them. We bought some Colorado Blue Spruce and Black Hills Spruce pine trees to plant as a mini windbreak. Three of them went in the ground yesterday just in time for frost last night. The fourth and last one is indoors for the moment and awaits the removal of a diseased Asian Elm tree – if we can get a neighbor with a chainsaw to help out.

Speaking of sawing, a replacement pole saw and lopper finally was purchased a couple of months ago. Tuesday was my first chance to use it and I discovered to my dismay that my recent slide in health is worse than I realized. It was torture using it and one oak tree branch will take multiple days to get through.

No, it is not very thick being six inches in diameter or so. I am just that weak now. Oy.

Back to the frost. Last night set records for lows in some places around the area. We could use some global warming right about now. Pity it is junk science since humanity always prospers in warm periods.

Prosperity would be nice, but the coming storm is nearly upon us. China is going to be liquidating their U.S. treasury bond holdings. This shows that borrowing to increase our national debt is not going to work anymore. But that is not stopping the Fed from assisting in bailing out European banks. The insanity continues until everything falls down, I suppose.

At least the view from my window is nice with the blinds removed. It is amazing how plastic attracts dust that never lets go. I made the mistake of trying to dust them with a Webster extendable duster yesterday. The clouds of dust that arose could have felled a horse and drove me from the room.

I had purchased them close to twenty years ago to be able to vary sunlight since my eyes are very sensitive to light. But years of working on pain tolerance has helped a bit with that so I am ready to evict the things in favor of Asian blinds. Temporary plastic fake reed blinds (left overs from upgrading the dining room twelve years ago) will go up while I budget to get the real thing.

I’m thinking of painted bamboo ones but need to check my finances first.

Egad, the windows are dirty. Something will have to be done about that. Also have tomatoes to can today. So despite all the pain, at least it has been a productive week. That is something I have not been able to write down in some time.

That is worth the pain.

A Faux Expert Opines on China’s Stealth Fighter

One of the problems with the modern media is that there are many vaunted “experts” on any given subject who simply don’t know what they are talking about.  The Australian military aviation specialist Carlo Kopp is a prime example of this, which is why you should never quote him in a serious aviation forum – you’ll get laughed off the message board.  Yet here he is, getting the spotlight once again by proclaiming the Chinese J-20 is equal to the F-22A Raptor.

Worse yet, he claims his “analysis” of the prototype shows it is more stealthy than the F-35 Lightning II from certain angles.  This is the same guy who argued for upgrading ancient F-111 Aardvarks with the F-22’s engines!  Another one of his ideas is a F-22 fleet for Australia and he’s still championing that despite the simple fact the country can’t afford them.   Anything that threatens that dream is attacked, so Kopp has savaged the F-35 every chance he can.  Fortunately, the Australian government is more sane and want the JSF as it suits there needs quite well.

Now I’ll admit the J-20 will be a serious threat to our allies in the Pacific, but the F-35 will outclass it in stealth, avionics, and weapons.  That’s my armchair opinion based on the history of competing weapon systems over the years and Lockheed’s proven track record with stealth warplanes.  But don’t accept me as any kind of expert and do the research yourself.  You’ll probably come out more informed than Mr. Kopp.

Ceding Sovereignty

AKA Joining the EU or the Greek Regret

For some time I’ve been collecting links to articles for a large post on the American economy.  Sadly, there are simply too many pieces of bad news to write a reasonably sized post. Still don’t know what to do with all those links, but in the meantime a financial crisis in Europe may be an indicator of what will happen to the USA.

Greece’s deficit percentage of their GDP has ballooned to unmanageable proportions and it has caused the money markets to be shaky.  For awhile, it looked like Germany would bail them out since that is what people in Europe expect.  That is looking highly unlikely and the economically better off EU nations have little sympathy for the Greeks despite the threat insolvency would have on the Euro.

The Greek government shows no signs of taking any real measures to deal with their debt and the Greek people have threatened strikes and riots over austerity plans.  Total paralysis of the always unstable government is where they are at. With reform opposed by people on the dole, nothing can be done. This is the sad place turning a nation into a welfare state will take you.

Thing is, they joined the European Union. That means they ceded sovereignty under certain economic conditions according to the Lisbon Treaty. So now the Greeks have been informed that they have to take drastic measures or the EU will do it for them. While I have my doubts about the ability to force the Greeks to comply; it has to be noted that there has been talk of throwing them out of the EU.

I’ll be blunt.  I have no sympathy for the Greeks as they are a socialist state that can’t keep a coherent government in place for any extended amount of time. They also foolishly voted away their ability to be an independent nation out of greed, with visions of wealth rolling in from the union.

But this crisis bears watching for it may be a predictor of what will happen in the near future for the United States.  We are currently running an insane deficit in a moronic attempt to spend ourselves out of debt. While we aren’t part of an economic union that can step in to take over our finances, we have a problem in how much of our securities are held by China, our number one creditor.

Oh wait, they sold off a huge amount of our bonds in December and Japan is now #1.   China is showing signs of getting out of our bonds. But hey, we can find plenty of buyers because of how safe our bonds are, right? Ummmmm….

Yeah, we are in trouble.  Just three years out from when the Democrats took over Congress and we are considered riskier than Kazakhstan.  At some point the debts are going to be called due, especially if economic woes get worse in China and Asia. Our creditors will be in a place to dictate to us.

Our founding fathers looked to ancient Greece and Rome for inspiration in setting up our government.  I posted earlier about Victor Davis Hanson’s argument that we have made the same economic mistakes as the Romans.  Now I have to wonder if we are also following the path of the modern Greeks. 

 

 

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So How’s That Economic Recovery Going?

A lot of media spin has been about how we are recovering economically despite the lack of jobs. After all, the stock market keeps going up and it is the barometer of the economy.  At least that is what people assume, but there are many other indicators of economic health.

It isn’t often you see the words “world gold supply runs out.” In fact, I don’t recall ever seeing them until this article at The Telegraph. With less retrievable gold ore in the ground, it is going to be harder for nations to convert their financial reserves to hard metal.  Output is plunging at the mines, so the rush to invest in gold has a problem – there isn’t enough of the precious metal to go around.

That’s always been an argument I’ve had with goldbugs, that there isn’t enough of the metal to cover the currencies of the world. There is a possibility that silver will go back up to make up the slack, but money is an illusion whether it be made of metal or paper or electrons floating in computers. Faith is what sustains it and gives currency value. So what happens when you can’t convert the currently held currencies and they dwindle into nothing?  We may find out.

Speaking of running out of things, the FHA is running out of cash and may require – you guessed it, a bailout from the government. Oh yes, the housing market is still in trouble and there is fear they can’t cover loans due to growing unemployment. The critical quote of the piece:

The FHA’s cash reserves have plummeted to $3.6 billion, compared with $685 billion in outstanding insured loans - a ratio of 0.53 percent that is far below the 2 percent required by Congress and a fraction of the 6.4 percent reserve ratio in fiscal 2007.

Banks are usually closed down if they have that kind of ratio, so this is not good. With no signs of unemployment going down, we’ll be seeing more of these loans defaulting. So there will be a bailout using tax payers’ money.  Except we don’t have enough because revenues are down. But China will loan us the money, right?

Well, China is not very happy with the US right now.  They rightly have figured out that the weak dollar and low interest rates have dangerously ballooned stocks and property investments.  What we don’t need is more bubbles that will burst and that is precisely what we are getting. 

Not that China is really helping things themselves.  Ambrose Evans-Pritchard has an interesting and somewhat alarming commentary on the problems surrounding China’s exporting overcapacity.  We have too much supply and not enough demand from them so they are not taking up the slack from the West. Read it.

Fears of a double dip recession abound, but I still think we never came out of it in the first place.  It was just a plateau in the fall and we are going to see darker days before anything truly gets better.

One kind of darkness has already fallen on Australia. They went with a cap and tax scheme to lower carbon emissions and electricity prices skyrocketed. People can’t afford their bills and are being cut off with retirees being hit hardest. That will strangle their economy in no time flat. Right now they are experiencing what we will if similar legislation is enacted.

I wish I had good news to report.

Is the US Dollar Dying?

One of my regular reads is the online edition of the Daily Telegraph published in the United Kingdom.  It was interesting to see what the most read stories were today and I think you will see a unifying theme in them:

1. Barack Obama accused of making 'Depression' mistakes
2. China alarmed by US money printing
3. UN wants new global currency to replace dollar

Then on the other side of the page was Gold hits $1,000

With the Obama administration printing more green to buy government bonds because the Chinese won't, you know something is wrong.  Then you hear that the Chinese are moving slowly over to gold in order to keep their investments from deprieciating radically and off in the distance alarm bells begin to ring.  Finally, there has been talk between Russia, China, and India about starting a new currency because the dollar isn't looking sound, but hey, that's just a bunch of wannabe's talking, right?  Except now the UN is talking the same proposal a few week later.  Yeah, there is something seriously wrong with the US dollar when the biggest holder of US debt is publicly complaining and planning to move to something else.

Is the dollar actually dying?  Time will tell, but one thing is certain -- it is very, very ill.