A Real Russian Invasion?

I’ve been watching Putin play the propaganda game with great success against the West this year which has allowed him to take the Crimea without real opposition. Sorry folks, but economic sanctions aren’t opposition when they leak like sieves due to countries like France. So when he put a huge aid convoy to Ukraine and started having armored vehicles painted with peacekeeper symbols on them, I knew he was about to do something.

Events lately have shown Obama is an uninvolved weakling obsessed with golfing while the world burns. With America out of the picture to protect Europe, somebody was going to start throwing their weight around and Russia is the only country capable of that today.

Knowing that, the news that Russian armor had crossed the border into Ukraine today (Hot Air is collecting links to news as they come in) came as no surprise. Now it is a waiting game to see how far Putin will push things. Don’t be surprised if he goes to a full on war for he has the advantage right now.

Rumors have been flying around Russia about battle plans and I haven’t found confirmation on any of them. One involved “rescuing” not only the ethnic Russians in Eastern Ukraine, but in Estonia, a NATO member. The darkest rumor came out of Gary Kasparov’s organization that stated the Kremlin was contemplating nuking two European capitols as a show of force if NATO dares to intervene. The idea being that taking out two lesser capitols would terrify Europe and the the United States into allowing Russia to do whatever they wanted without provoking a wider war.

Many would say this is an insane strategy or that even a conventional invasion of Ukraine is. Actually, it is completely rational if very brutal. Odds are rather high that it would work given the profound military and mental weakness on display in Western governments. People have forgotten what dealing with evil is like when it comes to nation versus nation thanks to an extended period of peace. The fact there hasn’t been a major war since the Korean War has lulled our society into complacency and obliviousness to certain ugly realities.

What would Putin have to gain by starting such a war? Ports, natural resources, and even more consolidation of power back home. There really isn’t any downside for him personally, given all the wealth he’s accumulated. The fires of nationalism combined with calls for ethnic unity, if not superiority, work like a charm for despots. History records this over and over again, for human behavior never changes even if the weapons do.

If it turns out Russia is probing for responses again, that would be a mistake on their part for it increases the odds that some Europeans will start to wake up and prepare. With militaries slashed to the bone, they are at their weakest right now and anything that gives them a chance to start rebuilding them would be foolish on Putin’s part. Now would be the most optimum time to take Ukraine, not later.

No matter what, things don’t look good for the future. A third World War is very much a possibility and may already be a probability. I don’t think Americans or Europeans are remotely prepared to handle it. Given the poor performance of Russia inside Ukraine so far, I question their ability to as well.