When the Levy Breaks

Watching the Berlin Wall being attacked with sledgehammers as East and West Germany spontaneously reunited left an indelible impression on me in the early 1990’s. The following Russian revolution that took down the Soviet Union had memorable images as well, especially of Boris Yeltsin leading the rebellion. But the unexpected fall of the Soviet Union was a surprise to all and even today it is somewhat of a mystery of why it happened. Leon Aron has written an intriguing theory over at Foreign Policy.

In it, he puts forth the idea that it was a desire to morally reform the Soviet Union that led to its downfall. This is a fascinating idea given the events in Arab countries right now. Economics is usually cited as a causal factor in revolutions by our liberal media and intelligentsia, which reflects their Marx influenced thinking. But what if it is something else entirely?

Lately, I’ve come to the conclusion that governments and businesses are supported by faith in them, or confidence, rather than actual merit or results. As long as confidence remains in them, they stay afloat. But once that is lost, the beginning of the end is soon to be seen. Parliamentary systems of government illustrate this rather well, but it applies to all forms of government.

The money quote of the article:

"Dignity Before Bread!" was the slogan of the Tunisian revolution. The Tunisian economy had grown between 2 and 8 percent a year in the two decades preceding the revolt. With high oil prices, Libya on the brink of uprising also enjoyed an economic boom of sorts. Both are reminders that in the modern world, economic progress is not a substitute for the pride and self-respect of citizenship. Unless we remember this well, we will continue to be surprised -- by the "color revolutions" in the post-Soviet world, the Arab Spring, and, sooner or later, an inevitable democratic upheaval in China -- just as we were in Soviet Russia. "The Almighty provided us with such a powerful sense of dignity that we cannot tolerate the denial of our inalienable rights and freedoms, no matter what real or supposed benefits are provided by 'stable' authoritarian regimes," the president of Kyrgyzstan, Roza Otunbayeva, wrote this March. "It is the magic of people, young and old, men and women of different religions and political beliefs, who come together in city squares and announce that enough is enough."

I would submit that the United States is not immune to this. With the rise of the Tea Parties, a direct challenge to the current system is being made. A large number of people feel that the wheels are coming off of our society and that corruption feeds the growth of the government. Even discounting the vocal protesters, I’ve run into many of the apathetic middle who no longer trust the government to do anything right. This isn’t the “malaise” that Jimmy Carter spoke of around 35 years ago. Instead, it is a feeling of resigned resentment.

Technically, we have a system designed for easy change. Unfortunately, sprawling bureaucracy and Obama’s attempts at an imperial presidency have done too much damage to the system. The system of checks and balances between the branches of government have been compromised to the point of no return.

Nobody saw the fall of the Soviet Union coming until it happened. Are we ignoring the same signs in their infancy here? I wonder.

There is also the problem of revolutions rarely delivering on what was promised. They are glamorized by historians and the media, but tend to unleash the darkest aspects of the human soul with oppression and bloodletting being the end result. In Russia, Putin is poised to openly rule again as an elected dictator. Not exactly what was hoped for when the Soviet system was dismantled.

I can’t say if Aron is correct, but his ideas are very interesting to say the least. We need to be looking around and re-evaluating events like this to find lessons. While we always live in uncertain times, things seem to be more unstable than usual and I have the impression that the world is about to be plunged into great turmoil. Being a history buff, this is exciting but I can’t say I’m looking forward to it!