A Mitigated Disaster?

Well that was brutal. The American people voted their emotions and the Iraq war, with a smattering of "culture of corruption/throw the bums out" populism being the cause. This certainly wasn't an election of "all politics are local" nature. Only one candidate I predicted as winning actually won, as the center swung over to vote for the Democrats. We lost the US House, probably the US Senate, the Minnesota House, and the bulk of the governor's races. Even sheriff's races over in Wisconsin saw almost all the Republican candidates defeated. This was a total rejection of the GOP and punishment for not having a swift victory in Iraq.

So why aren't I calling it an unmitigated disaster? Look at how the referendums on marriage went. All seven states passed amendments defining marriage as between a man and a woman. This indicates the growing conservatism of the country as a whole, not a tilt to the left. What we are seeing is a punishment of the GOP from the voters, the equivalent of taking the belt to the child that erred. This debacle means the Republican leadership will have to listen to their base and grassroots, instead of taking them for granted. Fiscal responsibility being a huge issue there.

It was a perfect storm of war fatigue, growing isolationism, the six year itch, and a masterful propaganda campaign by the media against the Right. The growing influence of the Blogosphere was not enough to counter the last and nothing could counter the others. There is going to be a lot of second guessing, but I'm of the opinion nothing could have prevented what just happened. The campaigns were run well for the most part and we simply lost. That's politics!

Oddly enough, this has led me to re-evaluate the leadership who didn't prevent WWII. Neville Chamberlain now appears less the fool than an elected official truly representing the will of his people. We are in a time that has certain analogues to the world situation of the 1930's (maybe even the 1830's domestically) and I now know that the unavoidable is unpreventable as well. We think our governments and officials have the power to do just about anything, but they are as subject to the movements of history as the rest of us. So, Neville, I forgive you for "peace in our time" as you were doing what the British populace wanted.

I still like Winston Churchill better, but he was constantly getting thrown out of office. Heh, usually for speaking truth to power.

Well, I was going to post why Brenda Johnson won, but that turned into a rout and not in our favor. We ran a tight, focused campaign that did everything right and with an exceptional candidate. The other candidates made terrible tactical and strategic decisions, allowing us to control the overall campaign. It just turned out this was never our race to win, the DFL won everywhere in the area except for Steve Swiggum's district. Even the environmentalist independent candidate, Kevin Kelleher, didn't have a prayer in the face of what was happening. I really expected him to do better than he did in certain areas, but the DFL got the angry vote.

The same anger at those in power tilted the local sheriff's race toward the outsider who ran simply as an outsider. My favored candidate had concrete ideas and plans, but is considered part of the establishment so he didn't have a real chance either.

This really was an angry populist election and things usually go bad after one. Our foreign policy will be hamstrung now and I fear whatever chances we had at success in Iraq will be erased. Iran and Islamic extremists will correctly view this election as proof of American weakness, which will entice them to get even bolder. Very dark times are ahead for us and I can safely say most of the American people don't understand just how bad it will be. Weakness is always rewarded with pain and going isolationist means a world of pain will come knocking on our doors.

My consolation is that the Democrats ran a lot of conservative candidates who will be shut out of power by the far left leadership. We'll see some schisms in the next two years and the infighting will be brutal. Hopefully, a purging of the free spenders in the Republican ranks will occur as well. Adversity breeds character and we need some character building in the GOP. Another thing is that the voters may be opting for gridlock, as I don't see a mandate on left wing social issues. For instance, here in Minnesota Governor Pawlenty narrowly won re-election while the House was given to the DFL and their majority increased in the Senate. That means that a Republican president is a likely outcome in 2008.