Iowa Caucus or Iowa Circus?

Once again the first in the nation caucuses held in Iowa have concluded without leaving any definite conclusion as to who the eventual nominees will be. For those of us who follow politics, the relief from the sheer overflow of punditry and prognostications is large, to say the least. So much hot air, so much speculation, so much money spent… and rarely does the GOP winner go on to win the whole shebang.

Frankly, the Democratic Party results are more fascinating than that of the Republican record setting attendance. I’ll get back to that in a moment.

I live near the border of Iowa, so the results were of interest to me, especially from Winneshiek County. Trump beat Cruz 274 to 251 votes while Sanders beat Clinton 56 to 54 delegates in the Iowa Democrats very twisted methods of counting. Oddly, there is no secret ballot and the process is very peer pressure driven with little accountability.

Statewide, Ted Cruz supporters are spinning the huge victory when the Texan was always expected to win due to evangelical support. His victory by four points is not a blow out or even that decisive in reality. It should have been much bigger given how hard his campaign worked the state.

Donald Trump failed to win like late polls had indicated, though I’ve heard an anecdote that many Democrats crossed over to support him. Rather than being a Rush Limbaugh style chaos operation, they are genuine fans fed up with their own party. That may come into play later down the road. As it is, Trump got 24% compared to Cruz’s 28% (rounded unusually up, it is closer to 3.3%) which is more impressive than pundits want to admit.

It would be unwise to dismiss characterizations of Marco Rubio’s performance as being the biggest news. While the GOP establishment is deserving of scorn, the support for Rubio is solidifying late and may be “just in time” for the overall race. The Donald is well hated by many conservatives and Cruz is genuinely unlikeable for others, so Rubio is getting support from the fans of the fading candidates: Paul, Kasich, Bush, and Christie.

“Marcomentum” is real, I believe. He nearly tied Trump for second place by coming out of nowhere the past week. Also, he’ll win the little old lady vote which should be taken seriously even if it sounds like a joke. Rubio will do much better in upcoming caucuses.

In the end, the bound delegate count is eight for Cruz, seven for Trump, and six for Rubio. Hardly an outstanding win and much closer to a three way tie when you look at it that way.

My personal favorite, Ben Carson, isn’t going to get anywhere near the nomination though he came in fourth. As far as Presidential races go, if I support a candidate early it is the kiss of death. Choosing by quality of character goes against what the American people want for they love their corruption while loudly railing against it.

Speaking of corruption, Hilary Clinton splitting Iowa with Bernie Sanders is horrific news for a horrible candidate. While the Democrat turnout was less than the Republican one by over 8,000 caucus goers and well short of the 240,000 who turned out for Obama in 2008, it was even more hotly contested.

Reports of between three and six delegates decided by coin tosses awarded Clinton the victory indicates there may have been some tampering to guarantee a “win” for her. She’s going to lose New Hampshire by a large margin which will add to the heartBern.

Unlike Bill, Hilary is not Teflon coated and though the current administration will protect her from charges for her blatantly criminal acts the knowledge that she broke the law isn’t going to go away. The race between her and Sanders may end up being much more fascinating than the current mess on the GOP side. With O’Malley dropping out, it is a race between an old closet socialist and an old open socialist now.

I’m mystified that there isn’t a larger and better selection of candidates on the Democratic Party side of things. Apparently there is no bench of up and comers to draw upon. Or is it that the Clinton machine has that much control over the party?

New Hampshire will begin to crystalize the Republican race I think. Already it looks like it will be a final three of Cruz, Trump, and Rubio. It is rankings that will matter going into South Carolina and that’s what is to be watched. Huckabee has suspended his campaign and others need to follow his lead.

The big question will be more of an inside ball topic: Will Jeb Bush and his associated PACs stop attacking Rubio or continue in spite hoping to ruin Marco’s chances for the nomination? Huckabee did that to Romney in 2008 leading to John McCain getting his rear handed to him by Obama.

The one sure thing is that the silly season is going to be extended this election.