Iran Burns 30 Years after the Revolution

A lot of things have happened in Iran during the Shia holiday of Ashura.  We very well could see another revolution or an incredibly bloody crack down by the Islamic government. I’ve been busy with FFT (Forced Family Time) this Christmas weekend and haven’t kept up on posting about what was happening. Now it is almost too much to report.

For the last week there have been extensive demonstrations against the current government, mainly by university students which is reminiscent of how the 1979 revolution that overthrew the Shah began. While there have been many protests since the fraudulent elections, things turned more violent. Attempts to rescue two men being hanged ended up with people being killed and reports the rescued men were shot dead.  There have been many arrests including relatives of powerful politicians and academics.

Let’s start with Michael Totten’s post at Commentary Magazine calling it Iran’s modern equivalent of the Battle of Karbala. In it he explains how the killing of demonstrators during Ashura has created an extremely powerful symbol:

Ashura is a Shia religious holiday, and it is not joyous. It is a day of lamentation that marks the date when the forces of the Umayyad caliph Yazid killed Hussein, son of Ali and grandson of the Prophet Mohammad, during the Battle of Karbala in the year 680. It’s one of the most infamous episodes in the struggle for power that permanently ruptured the house of Islam into its warring Sunni and Shia halves. The Shia – the partisans of Ali and his lineage – have been at war with the Sunnis – those who took the side of Yazid – for thirteen centuries.

Totten goes as far as saying that Iranian religious conservative are turning against the government.  That may explain the report that Ayatollah Khamenei is planning to flee to Russia.  If this is true, things are falling apart quickly.

But will the people of Iran prevail against their government?  Even if they do, will that change relations with the outside world?

My concern is that the Khamenei and Ahmadinejad will use total force to retain power, much like China did in Tiananmen Square twenty years ago.  Beyond that, the Iranian government is saber rattling quite a bit and have let Egypt know they will hit US bases in the Middle East if Israel bombs their nuclear facilities.

Iran is becoming very unstable and anything could happen as a result.  While I wish for the best for those who want more freedom and fair elections I also fear for their lives and those in countries around Iran. As it is, all we can do is wait and watch to see if this truly is a revolution or just a rebellion doomed to fail.

One thing is for sure and that it appears to be the beginning of a civil war.