Georgia on My Mind

Well, the Bear is back, Russia having invaded Georgia's break away provinces earlier this weekend, then rolling toward Tbilisi, the Georgian capitol today. Starting with a classic case of false provocation, Putin and his minions claimed they had to invade to protect Russian citizens in South Ossetia. South Ossetian seperatists had conducted escalating attacks, which finally resulted in Georgia sending their troops in. Since Russia funds and controls those seperatists, it is pretty clear that the Georgians stepped right into a classic Russian trap. It gave them the thinnest of excuses to invade and put President Saakashvili in his place for standing up to them.

It is clear that Putin and his puppet, Medvedev, intend to make an example of the former Soviet possession. My suspicion is that they intend to take the country, then install a puppet regime so that they can can achieve several goals. The most obvious is control of the oil pipeline that goes through Georgia to Turkey, giving Russia further control of fossil fuels in Europe; they control half the natural gas and a quarter of the oil already. The second is sending a message to the U.S. and Europe that they are in charge of Eastern Europe and to keep out. But the biggest reason is the most dangerous reason: the desire to subjugate former Soviet territories and rebuild the Soviet Union. This doesn't necessarilly mean a return to communism, it is about Russian power and pride, ie: nationalism.

If the West permits Georgia to fall (and I think we will), it will be only the beginning. Russia will wish to extend their power and other nations will start equipping for war. An arms race is probable, with Ukraine, Poland, and the Baltics leading the way, determined to not be slave states again. Unlike oil rich Russia, they will be more dependant on foreign aid, which we had better provide.

In the meantime, I'm wondering how long Georgia can hold out if Russia besieges the capital. Currently, the Russian Air Force owns the air, which gives them an immense advantage in addition to their larger ground forces. I hate watching a democratic country fall to a dictatorship and wonder if this is how people felt watching Hitler annex the Sudetenland in 1938, knowing that appeasement would only feed the nationalists.