Caucus Time in Minnesota

Next Tuesday night we have the political caucuses for the Republican and Democrat-Farmer Labor parties.  Not many states have this system, so it is something different than most voters expect.  Instead of going someplace to vote in a primary for predetermined candidates, the local voter goes to a caucus where they can choose to run for a delegate seat in the county convention.  Resolutions are also submitted and voted upon to be considered at the previously mentioned convention.

In other words, it is an opportunity for the little guy to be heard and have some effect on local politics beyond just voting. Locally, the county chairs for both parties sat down with reporter Ryan Henry at The Houston County News for an informative article.

Government is best run if the people are fully involved and I recommend that every Minnesotan with a political opinion put their time and energy where their mouths are by attending their local caucus.

I’ll be doing my part as a convener for the Republican Party caucus location in Houston.  Should be interesting if the Tea Parties are any indication!

State of Disunion Speech

Well, that was a dismal performance last night.  Watching the talking heads on PBS try to spin the State of the Union speech being a great performance was to view an exercise in futility, as even Mark Shields admitted the speech wasn’t one that would be remembered in history.  I didn’t catch the entire thing but what I saw was a vintage Obama campaign speech.  That means it was devoid of substance, filled with lies, and highly partisan.

The AP put out a fact check that took the President to task on multiple statements and promises he made during the speech last night.  All are valid points and I’d like to add the one that managed to really anger me:  the claim to have supported the protesters in Iran.  Those of us who have followed the protests there have been frustrated with Obama’s refusal to support them and weak criticisms of the ruling dictatorship he wants to negotiate with so badly.

Despite the voters in Massachusetts rejecting Obamacare in shocking fashion earlier this month, the President showed himself to be no Bill Clinton.  There was no attempt to triangulate, or at least no intelligent one, by moving away from health care “reform.” Instead, Obama showed himself to be utterly committed to passing that corrupt bill no matter the cost.  Nobody is buying that it will lower costs, Champ.

Of course, he whined constantly about inheriting all the problems and this shows the Democrats inability to do anything other than “blame Bush.” That isn’t going to work anymore and will be completely without effect by the elections in November.

Another thing jumped out at me was when he announced the spending freeze and that it wouldn’t hurt people today because it would be implemented next year when the economy was better.  No applause when he made his typical “stop for the adulation pause” and scattered laughter followed.  Mr. Cool lost his cool and glared at Congress and ended up evoking more laughter.

Empty promises are the medium politician work with, but this one was such a whopper that even a chamber full of pols couldn’t believe it.  Obama believes everyone is so stupid that they’ll buy into the ridiculous concept of making an emergency cut in funding after it is no longer needed!  That way it won’t hurt!

Oh, please.

More people are waking up to the fact that President Obama is a con man who doesn’t really care about the people of this country.  If he keeps throwing out farcical pronouncements like the spending freeze, his only supporters will be the diehards in the Democratic Party.  It is already getting dangerously close to that as recent special elections have shown. By the time November rolls around, the Democrats in Congress will be in dire shape.

But we are stuck with this fraud in the White House for another three years and he will do a great deal of damage through the bureaucracy.  Barack Obama is simply the wrong man at the worst possible time to helm America.

 

ADDENDUM

I forgot to mention the direct attack on the Supreme Court that was made to their faces.  That was not a Presidential action and showed just what a demagogue Obama really is. Trying to cajole Congress into writing what would be another unconstitutional law to override the SCOTUS decision freedom of speech shows what disdain the so-called Constitutional scholar has for the Bill of Rights.  It also made clear how little value he has for the separation of powers across the three branches of government.

Barack is not a class act.

First Amendment Upheld

Bye, Bye McCain-Feingold!

Today the Supreme Court has ruled that prohibitions against corporations and non-profits from running political ads violated the First Amendment of the Constitution of the United States of America.  About time, a lot of little people got stepped on by McCain-Feingold as quite a few organizations and lobbyists represent people banded together from across the nation, not just the wealthy. The 5-4 ruling will set a precedent and very well may end up being a landmark case (the media loves to throw that label around for everything) affecting judicial rulings for years to come.

Powerline is all over this and has further links.

This is very good news to those who believe in the Bill of Rights and our Constitution.  No form of censorship should be allowed in politics.

UPDATED:

Over at Big Government, Robert Frommer has a great post that explains why this was important for the people of our country and why this is only the beginning of the fight.

A Radical Looking Warship

On January 16th, The U.S.S. Independence LCS-2 entered the fleet.  Built for speed and fighting off of coasts, this new class of littoral warships may be just what we need to deal with the rising number of pirates plaguing the shipping lanes in Africa and Asia.

The stealthy tri-maran design can do over 40 knots and cruises at half that speed.  Besides being fast, she carries one helicopter and can carry UAV drones.  An assortment of guns rounds out the capabilities of America’s newest warship.  Her sister ship, the Coronado, had her keel laying ceremony in December.

More pictures can be found at the ship’s website and at the USN’s official page.

After watching this video, I think the Independence wouldn’t look out of place in a Star Wars flick:

Brown Wins Senate Race in Massachusetts

All the networks are calling it for Brown with 70% of the precincts reported in.  He won convincingly, 53% to 46% for Coakley and it will be interesting to see if the percentage holds up.  Given the voter fraud that gives Democrats around 5% extra in the race, this was a very solid win.

Good news for now and we’ll have to wait and see if this kills Obamacare.  I suspect it will as Democrats up for re-election this year will be very scared after this debacle.  The last minute campaigning by President Obama did nothing to stem the populist tide and may have hurt things.

November is looking good for the Republican Party.

Is Mexico Becoming a Failed State?

One of the things that struck me about visiting Mexico last year was the feeling of being in an unstable environment.  Military road blocks were common as were people carrying concealed pistols in their vehicles.  You could feel the tension once you got away from the tourist areas and into the poorer ones.

That was Southern Mexico and things are far worse in the North. This sobering article in The Atlantic captures the growing instability that narcotics traffickers have generated in our Southern neighbor.  Corruption is endemic in Mexican society and it quickly becomes hard to tell the white hats from the black hats or even if there are any white hats.  If things escalate this year and they appear to already, we are going to have a huge problem on our border.  What would happen if we suddenly had a big refugee influx crossing into the States?

That is a contingency we have to plan for but I doubt our government will.  The lack of interest in foreign affairs that the Obama administration suffers from will mean if this happens it will be a complete surprise to them.

Good News in the MN Governor’s Race

Norm Coleman isn’t going to run after all.  I, for one, am very relieved to read this as I think it would have been a disaster. There would have been a revolt amongst the activists and Tea Partiers which would have dragged down other races.

Odds are that Marty Seifert will get the endorsement but things could change by convention time.  It will be interesting to gauge the mood at the precinct caucuses on February 2 and that may give a clearer picture.  Depending on who the new delegates and alternates are there could be a big shakeup in what direction the state GOP will go.

I think anyone who isn’t a fiscal conservative will be dead meat.

Odds and Ends for the Weekend

Haven’t been feeling very well and it has killed my writing the last few weeks.  Adding insult to injury, I broke a tooth 5 minutes before the local dentist closed for the weekend and have to wait until Monday to get something done.

Anyway, I ran into quite a few interesting things on the Net during all this and will put them in this post while I plot out a rather large one on the very bad economic news this month.

First up is a low budget docudrama aimed at educating kids about the Battle of Bunker Hill.  Since we live in a very visual age, I think the idea for the whole series has a great deal of merit.

Next is a fascinating find of the earliest known Hebrew writing. It dates 400 years earlier than the previously oldest Hebrew discovered and suggests the Old Testament is well, older than thought.  The content is very much like the scriptures and contains commandments on how to treat orphans, the poor, and slaves.

Ever buy expensive running shoes?  That may be making a fundamental mistake about running if this article is correct.  All I can say is that is my natural way of walking when barefoot so I wouldn’t be surprised if the theory pans out. No matter what, the prices commanded by these shoes is ludicrous.

Finally, a cautionary story about how success can corrupt the creative process to the point of destroying a project.  Duke Nukem 3D was a hugely successful videogame released in 1996 and the sequel was promised almost immediately.  Last year it was cancelled after an insanely prolonged development that showed no sign of completion. At least it no longer is the king of vaporware!

Horrific Disaster in Haiti

The reports coming in from Haiti indicate that a true catastrophe has happened that may be as bad (or worse) than the tsunami that hit Indonesia.  Estimates of over 100,000 dead are on the low end and the human suffering is great.  The U.N. peace keeping HQ was completely leveled with no survivors.

Once again, please pray for the survivors and their rescuers.

Massive Earthquake in Haiti

Initial reports are that it was a magnitude 7.0 that collapsed a hospital in Port-au-Prince and damaged many buildings.  Communications are cut and I expect there will be a large death toll since the epicenter was inland. 

Pray for those affected, it is going to be bad.

Reality Is Stranger than Fiction

Global warming has gotten so bad that iguanas are falling out of trees from the heat in Florida. Oh wait, they are freezing from the record cold there.  My mistake.

The next link may not be reality, since it is only theory, but it qualifies as stranger than fiction.  The theory postulates that 8 percent of our DNA was inserted by animal viruses and furthermore they may cause schizophrenia!

I always though insanity was hereditary, but I thought you caught it from your kids, not your pets.

On a Lighter Note

Over at Dark Roasted Blend there is a nifty tribute to birds titled “Praise to a Common Duck.”

I can attest to the amazing acrobatic agility of barn swallows and the blazing speed of hummingbirds since we get both out here on the farm.  Also seen around here are Canada geese, bald eagles, hawks, turkey vultures, many a songbird and occasionally a blue heron.

So far none of the cats have brought in a large bird, but they do enjoy the sparrows a lot.

Mayo Clinic Testing Dumping Medicare

The world famous Mayo Clinic is piloting a program of refusing Medicare patients at their Scottsdale, Arizona clinic.  While technically not rejecting the patients, there are few on Medicare who can afford to pay their own way.  In other words, if you have Medicare as your only means of health insurance you are screwed.

This is something that has been coming for some time.  In a desperate effort to contain spiraling expenditures on an already overstressed social programs, the government has been underpaying fees and services.  Medicare, like Social Security, is in very bad financial shape and rationing is starting to happen.

The quote of the article for me is this:

Mayo’s move to drop Medicare patients may be copied by family doctors, some of whom have stopped accepting new patients from the program, said Lori Heim, president of the American Academy of Family Physicians, in a telephone interview yesterday.

“Many physicians have said, ‘I simply cannot afford to keep taking care of Medicare patients,’” said Heim, a family doctor who practices in Laurinburg, North Carolina. “If you truly know your business costs and you are losing money, it doesn’t make sense to do more of it.”

Basic economics, that.

Medicare is for the elderly and disabled. It is already getting difficult to find doctors that accept it in some areas and that is going to get worse if the above quote is any indication.

Funny how every federally run welfare program is mismanaged.  Knowing that, what sense is there in either expanding Medicare or adding yet another program as Obamacare? 

Being on both Social Security Disability and Medicare, I’ve been sensitive to the growing problems with both.  In fact, I’m planning for the day when I can’t get medical care due to being on Medicare.  I can’t afford to save or go on another plan, so I’ll simply stop going to the doctor when that happens.

I won’t be the only one and things will get very dire in America as the quality of living plummets for many.  We are a graying nation and don’t have enough young people to sustain the system.

Oh yes, we are living in interesting times.

Andre “The Hawk” Dawson now Hall of Famer

 

Amidst all the gloomy weather and economic predictions, one ray of light for today.  Andre Dawson was elected to the Baseball Hall of Fame today.  Ever since Ryne Sandberg got in I’d hoped “The Hawk” would be the next Cub MVP to get in.  Watching him play was always a delight and there are vivid memories from then.   The one that stands out is when Eric Show beaned him and knocked him out for a few horrific moments. Winning the National League MVP for a losing team was another highlight as it showed just how dominant he was that year.

But the best memory was seeing him at baseball card convention in La Crosse.  Dawson was always such a serious player and it was very rare to see him smile.  My mother took a hand sewn Cubs flag she’d made to get his autograph and when he saw it a huge smile broke out.  One of these days I’ll get the photo of that smile while he signed the flag scanned into the PC. 

Congratulations to one of baseball’s class acts!

Thai Government Expels 4000 Hmong Refugees

It has never been easy for the Hmong people and it has only gotten harder for them since the Vietnam War.  4000 refugees were taken from Huay Nam Khao camp and forcibly repatriated to Laos where they face violence and persecution due to their having fought against the communists who now rule there.  This has struck home nearby, for many Hmong live in the La Crosse, WI area. 

While that article only lists one account of abuse, over on Facebook the group USA Stop the Torture of Hmong Refugees in Thailand claims there was more:

PRESS RELEASE - December 29, 2009

Thais to force more UNHCR-recognized refugees back to Laos

The Thai military has announced its plans to deport the remaining 400 Hmong refugees back to Laos. The majority of them are UNHCR-recognized refugees living in the Lop Buri and Bangkok areas. These forced deportations are planned to take place today and tomorrow under the noses of the UNHCR and foreign diplomatic community. The Thai government continues to blatantly defy well-respected norms of international refugee law by continuing to do this. Just yesterday, the Thai military forced back a group of 158 UNHCR-recognized refugees from Nong Khai jail. The group is reportedly being held at Lom Sat immigration jail in Vientiane.

On Monday, just before the group was forced back to Laos, they were encouraged to return by the U.S., Australian, Canadian and Nederland governments who had told the group they had arranged to have them resettled in third countries shortly after returning to Laos. The group was still unwilling to return to Laos so the Thai military raided the Nong Khai immigration jail with a force of 500 soldiers dragging the refugees onto deportation vehicles. The refugees were outnumbered 4 soldiers to each refugee so were powerless to resist.

Meanwhile, reports of abuse are circulating among some of the recent returnees to Laos, including ill-treatment of a former UNHCR-recognized refugee, Chue Long Her, along with others who were forced back to Laos yesterday by Thai authorities. They were part of a group of 4000 refugees forced back from Huay Nam Khao camp, Petchabun province. A group of 34 leaders in the camp were arrested by the Thai military and reportedly stun guns were used to subdue them as the leaders resisted deportation attempts. They are all on a Lao government political blacklist which was handed down to the Thais earlier this year - another breach in well-respected norms of international refugee law.

Currently, these leaders are being held in Borikhamsai province with no access to third party monitoring.

Joe Davy
Hmong Advocate
Chicago

Sadly, I think the Western governments involved would like the problem to simply go away.  There is little will and no desire to get more involved.  Now it is a wait and see game to find out if the refugees really will be relocated to other countries.

Update on the Auschwitz Sign Theft

It looks like police are investigating my first theory about the theft of the sign (which has been recovered, thankfully).  The current suspicions are that a wealthy Swedish collector hired the petty criminals involved in the heist.  Poland has asked for help from the Swedish government in the investigation.

I swear too many people have more money than sense or morals.  Of course it could turn out that the collector is a neo-Nazi since Sweden has more than a few of them.

Iran Burns 30 Years after the Revolution

A lot of things have happened in Iran during the Shia holiday of Ashura.  We very well could see another revolution or an incredibly bloody crack down by the Islamic government. I’ve been busy with FFT (Forced Family Time) this Christmas weekend and haven’t kept up on posting about what was happening. Now it is almost too much to report.

For the last week there have been extensive demonstrations against the current government, mainly by university students which is reminiscent of how the 1979 revolution that overthrew the Shah began. While there have been many protests since the fraudulent elections, things turned more violent. Attempts to rescue two men being hanged ended up with people being killed and reports the rescued men were shot dead.  There have been many arrests including relatives of powerful politicians and academics.

Let’s start with Michael Totten’s post at Commentary Magazine calling it Iran’s modern equivalent of the Battle of Karbala. In it he explains how the killing of demonstrators during Ashura has created an extremely powerful symbol:

Ashura is a Shia religious holiday, and it is not joyous. It is a day of lamentation that marks the date when the forces of the Umayyad caliph Yazid killed Hussein, son of Ali and grandson of the Prophet Mohammad, during the Battle of Karbala in the year 680. It’s one of the most infamous episodes in the struggle for power that permanently ruptured the house of Islam into its warring Sunni and Shia halves. The Shia – the partisans of Ali and his lineage – have been at war with the Sunnis – those who took the side of Yazid – for thirteen centuries.

Totten goes as far as saying that Iranian religious conservative are turning against the government.  That may explain the report that Ayatollah Khamenei is planning to flee to Russia.  If this is true, things are falling apart quickly.

But will the people of Iran prevail against their government?  Even if they do, will that change relations with the outside world?

My concern is that the Khamenei and Ahmadinejad will use total force to retain power, much like China did in Tiananmen Square twenty years ago.  Beyond that, the Iranian government is saber rattling quite a bit and have let Egypt know they will hit US bases in the Middle East if Israel bombs their nuclear facilities.

Iran is becoming very unstable and anything could happen as a result.  While I wish for the best for those who want more freedom and fair elections I also fear for their lives and those in countries around Iran. As it is, all we can do is wait and watch to see if this truly is a revolution or just a rebellion doomed to fail.

One thing is for sure and that it appears to be the beginning of a civil war.

Rekindling the American Dream

A plan to get America out of the financial crisis.

I normally don’t post material written by others, but when I read this message put out by Hugh Miller I felt it should get more attention.  While I haven’t gotten permission to reprint, the fact he paid money to get into the papers in the first place makes me think he won’t mind.  If he does, I’ll take it down!

REKINDLING THE AMERICAN DREAM

by Hugh Miller, Nov. 30, 2009

Our country is in very serious financial trouble, mortal financial danger, and unless and until we turn it around, quickly,the American Dream will die. But upon reflection it’s even worse than that, for while the death of the American Dream would be tragic enough, the end of America being a safe, stable and good place to live would be cataclysmic.

It’s that serious, and as an impassioned American citizen, very worried about his country, there is an obligation to speak out, as forcefully as possible. Here’s how I see it.

The national debt we are accumulating is both debilitating and unsustainable, and by most standards we are already bankrupt. What this means, in practical terms, is shortly we will not be able to control our own destiny -- others will control it for us. It also means our children, and their children, will not have the same opportunities we had, and in fact will be lucky to find a real job. Further, it means our standard of living declines, rapidly, bringing about extreme and likely violent social unrest. Let me try and explain.

The numbers are staggering and confusing, so I’ll try and state it in terms we can better understand.

Imagine you, Mr. or Mrs. Public, have take-home pay of $27,000 per year. During the year, however, you spend $47,000, $20,000 more than you take home. How can this happen? You charge things you can’t afford and your creditors look the other way. Anyway, you now have a debt of $20,000 you’ll have to pay back over time. You have a real problem, solvable, but unless you get at it, soon, you’ll end up in serious trouble.

Now let’s imagine you suddenly realize you have a second debt of $120,000. That’s on top of the $20,000, so the total you now owe is $140,000. That’s a very big number, more than five times your take-home pay. With a really dedicated approach, and cooperative creditors, your debt is still manageable, but only with extreme discipline and understanding bankers.

Believe it or not it gets worse. Now let’s imagine you’ve just discovered you have a third debt and will owe another $480,000 in just a few years. That’s on top of the $20,000 and the $120,000 for a total of $620,000. That’s more than 22 times your take-home pay, so even if you paid all your take-home pay for 22 straight years you’d still be in debt.

You are beyond out of control; you’re a fiscal catastrophe.

Fortunately most of us don’t live this way, as we live within our means. Unfortunately, however, our favorite uncle does not. No, our Uncle Sam has spent too much in the past, is spending too much now, and will spend too much in the future.

Mr. or Mrs. Public in this example is actually the U.S. government, not with take-home pay and spending in the thousands, which we can all understand, but with take-home pay and spending in the trillions, which most of us cannot understand.

Instead of taking home $27,000, the U.S. government takes home $2.7 trillion dollars. Instead of accumulating debt of $20,000 over the next year, the U.S. government will accumulate debt of $2 trillion dollars over the same period.
Instead of having a second actual debt of $120,000, the U.S. government today has an actual debt of $12 trillion dollars. And instead of discovering you have a third debt of $480,000, the U.S. government has unfunded liabilities, due shortly, of $48 trillion dollars and growing. This would include future payments for Social Security, Medicare pensions, and other obligations.

How can any person live like Mr. or Mrs. Public? The answer is they can’t. How can any government live the same way? The answer is they can’t either. Most Mr. or Mrs. Publics know better and would never put themselves in such a terrible position. Sadly, and certainly shortsightedly, and arguably stupidly, the U.S. government has put our country, and all Americans, in extreme financial peril. Worse, they don’t seem to care.

If we are to solve our problems, we must first understand them, and so we need to step back and realize just how much we have already borrowed from our future and future generations. We are a nation of about 300 million people, and we now have a total debt and unfunded liabilities of about $62 trillion. That’s $200,000 apiece! That’s truly a startling figure, but that’s reality, and that’s the burden we’ve already placed on ourselves. Irresponsible doesn’t begin to describe this travesty.

What should we do? Here is what I would do.

1) First we must immediately come to grips with and try to comprehend the dire financial position we’re in, today. And we must explain that ugly truth to our people, also today.

2) Second, we must stop things from getting any worse. We simply must start living within our means, within our take-home pay, whether it’s $27,000 or $2.7 trillion dollars. In that regard I’d be in favor of an amendment requiring our government balance its budget, every year, except in times of a declared war. Until that happens, I’d balance the budget anyway.

3) We don’t take in too little, we spend too much -- much too much. Since 1999 to the present the U.S. government has taken in, on average, 4% more per year. Unfortunately, during that same time frame, they have spent, on average, 9.2% more each year.

Simply put we must cut spending, drastically, tough and unpopular as that may be. The alternative is worse, much worse. Taxing businesses or other job creators is not the answer and will make the deficit worse while increasing unemployment.

Sacrifice will be required by all of us, and it must be done fairly, and that’s as it should be. But whatever policies emerge must not be done at the expense of growth, for that would be counterproductive. After World War II we also had a huge debt, but strong economic growth made it much easier to handle that debt. And the reverse is true, the lower the growth the harder it is to pay back debt.

4) Any new spending programs should be shelved until we have a real plan for fiscal solvency. It’s like redecorating your living room while a fire is blazing in your basement. Put the fire out first, completely, before you even begin to think about redecorating.

Our first order of business, by far, is to put out the fire in our basement. Unless and until we fully extinguish that fire we won’t have a house to live in anyway.

5) Both the second debts, $120,000 for Mr. and Mrs. Public and $12 trillion dollars for the U.S., and the third debts, $480,000 for Mr. and Mrs. Public and $48 trillion dollars for the U.S., must be dealt with, now. Aggressive repayment and other appropriate procedures, in a bipartisan way, must be implemented immediately. We either solve these problems, together, or we die, financially at least, together. We have no choice, it must be done.

6) Lastly, but certainly not least, we must start rekindling the American spirit, which once was so great, and inspired our ancestors to come here in the first place. That same spirit turned this country into a great world power, largely by way of American manufacturing, American education, and American entrepreneurialism.

Today that would seem far less likely, as that American spirit is missing. We live in a highly competitive global society, and, sadly, America not only has a fiscal nightmare it has also lost its competitive edge in manufacturing, in K-12 education, particularly math and science, and in entrepreneurialism.

While our first order of business is digging ourselves out of our self-inflicted financial hole, simultaneously we must also start solving our manufacturing, educational, and entrepreneurial problems. By doing that we make ourselves globally competitive and give ourselves a chance to win. By not doing so we lose.

Those six things are keys to solving our problems and laying the foundation for a successful future. It will be difficult and painful, but it can be done and it must be done.

I often think of my grandfather, who like many others came here with little more than the shirt on his back. But those brave souls also brought with them a dream, a dream of making a better life for themselves in their new country, America -- the American Dream. And they did. I’ve little doubt my grandfather never heard of, let alone understood, the term entrepreneur. But nevertheless he was one, and mainly by hard work and sheer determination established a business, made life better for his family and his community, and created opportunities for others along the way. He lived the American Dream.

Would he be able to do so today? He certainly was strong and determined and his wife even more so, but I’m not so sure, in fact I doubt it -- there simply are too many roadblocks. Would he even want to come here today? I’m not so sure of that either, and that, to me at least, is really sad.

Minus that entrepreneurial spirit our economy won’t grow, jobs won’t be created, and we’ll start to experience an increasingly rapid decline in our standard of living. If we are to recover, it’s entrepreneurs who will lead that recovery. Accordingly they must be encouraged, not discouraged.

This looming catastrophe hasn’t happened overnight, but clearly it has accelerated rapidly this past year. We’ve trusted our politicians to do the right things, and clearly they’ve betrayed that trust. You might give them the benefit of the doubt by saying they don’t understand the problems, but if that’s the case they should find another line of work.

Rather than playing the blame game, however, and God knows there’s plenty of blame to spread around going back many years, let’s take the positive approach and just start solving the problems.

Quite frankly we have a mess, actually messes, almost beyond description, and they become increasingly unsolvable the longer we wait. We must start attacking them today. But it’s going to take a unified, bipartisan approach, starting right now.

From a personal perspective I would greatly prefer not to be the one highlighting these extremely unpleasant issues. However as an American citizen, very worried about his country, and very worried about the future of his children, and someday their children, and all other people’s children, there is no choice -- it must be done. There is, in fact, an obligation.

We can rekindle the American Dream, and we must, but we must get going. Our grandfathers and fathers would want it that way. Our children and grandchildren will be forever thankful.

Hugh Miller
President and CEO
RTP Company

What Recovery?

I find it fascinating how government agencies such as the Commerce Department fudges numbers for media consumption. They put out projected numbers that are usually rosy and then revise them downward after the media has forgotten about them. Somehow we’ve gone from a 3rd quarter figure of 3.5% growth to 2.8%  to 2.2% in three months!

Captain Ed has a great dissection of the announcement and explains how even the 2.2% is inflated by the Cash for Clunkers and new home owners tax credit stunts. Without those the growth was 0.7% and I have to wonder if even that happened. I don’t think things can be hidden forever when people are losing jobs and pay raises. 

Then there are the disastrous home sales figures that came out today.  A rise of 6.2% in sales was expected for November. Instead, they fell 11.3%.  I think this is the quote of the article:

November’s performance was a “hangover from the tax-credit-induced binge in the July thru October period," Peter Boockvar, market strategist at Miller Tabak, wrote in a note.

I think both ugly figures show the perils of government based stimulus efforts.  All the Feds can do is create a short term artificial bounce and that obscures the systemic problems at the core.  It looks good politically and might even get a country through a small recession, but it does nothing to solve the underlying weaknesses.  In this case, it may have done more harm by generating false expectations -- if not more credit bubbles.

Adding to the problem is the way the media portrays sales as increasing by only talking about month to month sales.  Comparing sales by year to year in the same period, things are not good.  Even the anemic 1.3% growth for November sales is from October.  This Gallup survey says holiday spending is actually down 22% from 2008, which was considered a very bad year. If the consumer is all we have to pull us out of the recession, we are in very bad trouble.

It seems we have a great many proverbial Nero’s fiddling while the American economy burns.  Bluntly, it probably already too late to do anything.  We are in for another major fall in 2010.

Relying on Drones Is a Bad Idea

Drones are starting to replace combat jets, but is it a wise decision?

One of the debates in military circles is whether or not manned aircraft have a long term future in combat.  The main idea is that remote controlled drones can be sent to fight without jeopardizing any American lives in the process.  They will be cheaper to manufacture and we won’t ever face an enemy with a significant air force again are parts of that theory.

I have problems with the argument, both on overall cheapness and the idea that all wars will be like Iraq and Afghanistan from now on.  The latter is foolishness because history says the next war will be unlike the previous one you fought, at least as far as the United States goes.  As far as being cheap, the drones have to be as they have an astronomical loss rate.  While that data is over two years old, I highly doubt Predator losses have improved significantly.

Then there is the whole concept of remote control being vulnerable to disruption.  We haven’t seen control of a drone being taken over by hostile forces, but they have successfully hacked the video feed of Predators.  The day will come when there will be a true hack rather than leeching video like a satellite TV pirate and what then?

That photo above is of a Predator pilot and instructor in the control station for the MQ-1.  He sits in a room watching monitors and pilots the drone via satellite. I believe having a human in the aircraft allows for many more contingencies to be dealt with.  You can’t hack a human and they can react much more quickly if they are in a real cockpit rather than a virtual one thousands of miles away. That flexibility simply cannot be replicated.

Then there is the “what if” of satellite jamming and destruction.  China has shown they can shoot down satellites as have we. Getting a replacement up is far more expensive and difficult than getting an airplane in the air.  I fear we are witnessing an over reliance on high technology that could be catastrophic against a powerful opponent such as China or Russia.

A more practical “what if” of facing an opponent with a real air force.  Drones are easy prey for manned jet fighters as the following video shows:

 

The answer to that is to use a stealthy drone as shown by the recently revealed RQ-170 Sentinel.  I find it strange that they are testing it in Afghanistan where there are no radars or fighters to evade.  Perhaps they are hopping over the border into Iran.

Still, there is a lack of flexibility inherent in such a design.  We’ll never see CAS (Close Air Support) effectively carried out by a drone.  Their slowness makes them effective only in environments we completely dominate in the air and their ability to respond to a changing threat is minimal.

Then there is the inevitability of them being hacked some day.  Everything networked gets hacked at some point, it is the nature of our time. The rest of the world has gotten very tech savvy and really are only limited by their budgets.  Just a couple of days ago, Twitter was hacked by Iranians.  While that isn’t a military organization, they do have active security experts protecting the network after some embarrassing lapses.

Lest you think I despise all drones, I don’t.  They have their uses but are too limited to be replacing fighters, bombers, and attack aircraft.  Reconnaissance is their forte and there they excel, but at quite a cost in airframes. 

One day this debate may be looked back at in much the same way the fiasco of going to missile only jet fighters is.  Generals, technicians, and politicians got overly enamored with technology and it failed to live up to exaggerated expectations. Going all remote control will suffer the same judgment in history, but we need to fight for programs like the F-35 Lightning II.

Manned aircraft will never be obsolete as long as the fog of war exists – and that will never go away.  Yes we will lose pilots because the nature of war means casualties.  That is unavoidable and a painful truth.  We can’t afford to lose our ability to fight a wide range of wars from fear of casualties.

The secret to our military’s success is only partly due to technology.  Most of it is due to flexibility and the supreme competency of our troops.  Often they have to make orders given them by isolated generals and politicians work in the field.  To continue doing that, they need to be fast moving and flexible.

Drones are neither fast moving or flexible, so relying on them primarily for an air force will be disastrous for the troops on the ground. Ask someone on the ground whether they’d like a Predator or a Strike Eagle backing them up.  I bet they’ll choose the fighter every time.

Auschwitz Sign Stolen

Poland’s police on the borders are on the lookout for the infamous sign from the main gate at the death camp.  Why would anyone steal the iconic and ironic sign?  My guess it has been stolen for a rich collector or by a neo-Nazi group, but humans being as weird as we are, anything could be behind the motive.  I just hope they retrieve it intact. With the rise of anti-Jewish sentiment in Europe it makes me concerned, considering next month the liberation of the camp is to be commemorated.

Another Debt Crisis or Two

Ran across a few interesting economic pieces last week, but didn’t feel well enough to write about them. Fortunately, or more accurately unfortunately, they still apply. I’ve been warning that bad commercial real estate loans would be the next shoe to drop.  We’ve seen that happen in Dubai, which I’ll write about further on.

But another debt problem is brewing and it will dwarf the real estate bubble.  That debt problem is the debt of sovereign nations, with the United States poised to be in major trouble.  Earlier in the year, the federal government had problems with some of its bond auctions not selling.  Now a new complication has entered the picture.

Ralph Benko’s op-ed at The Washington Examiner lays out the details of our debt servicing problem.  I was surprised to find out that we are only giving 1-2% interest on treasury bonds.  What country would want to buy those from us when inflation could easily turn them into losses rather than investments?  Something has got to give.

Quote of the piece:

The federal government currently pays, according the article, $202 billion a year in interest. White House estimates that interest payments will rise to $700 billion a year in 2019.

That doesn't count the projected catastrophic increases in entitlement costs in Medicare as the baby boomers retire. And you thought the American people were already shellshocked!

I don’t know, I think there is a point where the barrage of bad news ceases to register emotionally.  How low can we go is the question I ponder reading the news anymore.

Meanwhile, Greece is in a financial meltdown that is spooking investors in Europe.  Credit agencies have been making noises about what’s going on, even lowering ratings for Greece.  Quote of the article:

Analysts and credit-rating agencies are warning that countries with already high debt levels have rung up historically large deficits during the financial crisis, with tax collection plummeting even as public spending has soared.

The same principles that apply to individual debt apply to nations as well, duh!  Yet the idea of more spending by governments has taken such a firm hold on policy that increasing deficits are the norm rather than the exception.  But when it is someone else's economy they have no trouble in telling them to make cuts.

Instead, most officials in Europe are pushing the Greeks to clean up their own mess by making tough cuts.

"Considering the gravity of the situation, I am confident that the Greek government will in the near future take the courageous and necessary measures required," European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet told the Belgian economic dailies L'Echo and De Tijd this week.

I can’t decide if it perverse hypocrisy or an indication the other European countries don’t have any capital they can infuse into the Greek system.

The Dubai financial crisis has been a problem that rippled out all the way to Scotland.  Now their neighbor, Abu Dhabi has come to a short term rescue to the tune of $10 billion.  It looks like a temporary solution that doesn’t address the long term defaults that may happen. After all, it a $80 billion debt that still need to be addressed. 

Buying time is a scary part of solutions offered by debt ridden governments and is becoming all too common. I think the truth is that nobody knows how to deal with what is happening world wide and domestically. 2010 is going to be interesting.

Navy Starting to Growl

One of the more esoteric missions in military aviation is that of electronic warfare.  While most people are familiar with the ideas of fighters, bombers, reconnaissance and attack planes, they will draw a blank when you mention “jammer planes.” The latest US design is the EA-18G Growler and it finally has been declared operational.  Deployment will begin next year.

A modification of the F/A-18F two seat Super Hornet, the Growler is replacing the much older EA-6B Prowler design.  The Prowler is a four seat derivative of the A-6 Intruder attack jet that served so well from the Vietnam War to Desert Storm.  The main advantages of the new design are the youth of the airframes, ease of maintenance, and ability to defend itself from aerial threats. 

So the Navy has their new jamming bird, but where does this leave the Air Force?  One of the more boneheaded decisions made was to get rid of the EF-111A Raven’s that did a bang up job in Desert Storm.  They had many years left in them and were a perfect match in performance to the F-15E Strike Eagles and F-16’s they escorted.  Since 1998, the Air Force has been dependant on the Navy Prowlers to do the same job and now they will have nothing.

Meanwhile, the Prowler isn’t done yet.  The Marines are keeping theirs and I haven’t run into a retirement date for them yet. 

While I’m not a fan of the Super Hornet (or Super Bug), I do like the Growler as a platform.  My chief complaint about the F/A-18E is its limitations as an interceptor/fleet defender compared to what an upgraded F-14 Tomcat could have been. Thankfully, AEGIS cruisers have only gotten more capable in taking out incoming attacks. Then there is the range problem. 

But what is done is done and cannot be undone. Hopefully the F-35 won’t be cancelled and I believe it will give air superiority back to the carrier wings in any future engagement.

So it may be surprising to read that I’d like the USAF to consider buying the EA-18G instead of thinking drones will do the job.  This looks to be a very capable platform for electronic warfare and there will be a need for it before all is said and done.

Best PSA Ever

Thanks to the wonders of YouTube I’ve found a public service announcement I used to see as a kid.  The local TV stations would dump PSA’s onto the early hours of the morning but there were two that stuck out:  the crying Indian and the one that always made me laugh – Tennessee Trash.  It didn’t hurt that I hated litterbugs, but this is a classic.

Nobody Knows (2009)

The Untold Story of Black Mormons

I ran across mention of this documentary on the Net and and tracked down the website dedicated to it.   After seeing the trailer, I knew I had to own the DVD.

The documentary by Margaret B. Young and Darius A. Gray is utterly fascinating and often deeply moving as it follows the history of African American’s in the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints.  Much has been made of the Church’s past prohibition against men of color holding the priesthood and this film does not flinch from the hard questions around this.  Being a lover of the truth, the absolute candor of Nobody Knows impressed me no end.

Highlights include accounts of Elijah Able and Jane Manning James.  Able was a member of the LDS Church from the early days and a priesthood holder.  Ordained an Elder and a Seventy, he even served as a missionary when that wasn’t that common. Jane Manning is better known in Church history as she was taken in by Joseph Smith in Nauvoo, Illinois.  Her faith and trials showed what an amazing person she was in holding on to her faith.

Also standing out are all the interviews with members and nonmembers alike.  For me, Darius Gray and Paul Gill’s conversation at the end is simply wonderful and the best. That’s not to short change the others, they are all interesting and inspirational.

Topics covered are the beliefs of the Latter-day Saints, the restriction on the priesthood, the “seed of Cain” theory, the “fence sitters” theory, efforts to seek revelation to remove the restriction, Genesis Group, lifting of the restriction in 1978, and what it is like to be black in a predominantly white church.

Rather than go into detail about the documentary, I encourage you to buy or borrow the DVD.  I think it is one of the most amazing things I’ve ever watched and highly recommend it.  The extensive extras are all worth watching.  If you don’t feel your heart touched after watching it, you need to see a cardiac specialist to see if you have a heart.

 Nobody Knows should be seen by everyone in the Church, but especially those who still hold on to prejudice. Sadly, there are still racists in this modern age but if they watch this I think they will be forced to face the truth – that we are all children of a Heavenly Father Who loves us.

Personally,

I want to thank everyone who made this beautiful documentary for they have done us all a great service.

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Big Business & Big Government

One of the refrains I’ve seen of late is how capitalism failed and that’s why we are in an economic crisis. Something I’ve tried to explain to people in the past is that real capitalism is rarely seen in America these days.  What we have is huge corporations that dearly wish to be monopolies.  Monopolies don’t want competition, they want total control and are big believers in centralization.

So I’ve found it interesting how Republicans have been labeled the party of big business when so many big businesses mainly contribute to Democrats.  When big government and big business conspire, you get what we have these days.  What I am is a believer in competition of the free market which is different than being pro-business.  Jonah Goldberg has an excellent piece on this that everyone should read.

At Blogmocracy, Rodan has a post based on Goldberg’s op-ed that connects the union of progressives and big business with the policies of fascism.  In it, he uses a term I’ve used for years, Neo-feudal to describe the attitude of those wishing control through making everyone beholden to them. I have to point out that the ever increasing number of “czars” in the Obama administration accentuates the impression of feudalism to me.  Having people with cabinet level power who directly report to the President is all too much like vassals reporting to their lord, in my view.

I will say that the video in the post is annoying, it has some good content on socialism and George Orwell, then completely goes off the rails with the cartoony stuff at the end.

I think a fundamental human mistake is to vest power in one organization and then have all the decisions be made at the top.  This is the essence of centralization and history shows that it leads to inflexibility, inefficiency, and corruption every time.  This applies to businesses, organizations, political parties, and governments equally.

But here we are, repeating the same mistakes and being shocked when it goes wrong. While I think people are starting to wake up and see what is happening, I wonder if it is too late.  The consolidation of power by the federal government and large corporations has been going on for some time now.  The ACTA shenanigans are a good example of how it works, with the US government doing the bidding of the entertainment industry.

The solution is smaller government and small business.  A focus on these things will lead to better economic and political health in the country.  But will the American people do what is needed to bring reform about?  That’s the multi-trillion dollar question.

Weirdest Death Ever

Imagine being killed by exploding chewing gum.  Sounds like something from an Austin Powers movie, doesn’t it? Pretty funny, right?

In Ukraine, a chemistry major was killed when his chewing gum exploded.  Supposedly he used to dip gum in citric acid and may have confused another chemical with it.

This is too strange to believe. Or not to believe.  Frankly, I don’t know what to make of it and wonder if we’ll ever get a full explanation of what happened.   I just feel sorry for his poor parents.

Let It Snow, Let It Snow

After all, it isn’t like we can stop it.

Life in Minnesota involves the occasional blizzard or two and we’re in the middle of one right now.  Most places in the area have gotten between 10 and 16 inches already and it is still coming down as I post this.

The Post Bulletin is predicting it will end up in the top ten blizzards in Rochester history. 18 inches is looking likely for Winona, Rochester, and North of La Crosse.  I have the feeling I’ll be canceling the Missionary Coordination Meeting at church scheduled for tonight.

The wind is adding insult to injury.  Wind chills and blowing snow take much of the fun out of a blizzard.  Tonight temperatures will drop below zero in the AM meaning 20 to 30 below wind chills.  I hope that everyone stays safe and warm during nature’s siege.

Bloodhound to Run 1000 mph

Except this is no dog, this is a car.  The Brits who officially broke the sound barrier on wheels 12 years ago are back with a project to go 1,000 mph in South Africa.  The SSC Thrust hit 763 mph for an average using two jet fighter engines but that isn’t enough now that others want to break the record.  With a hybrid rocket motor this project is aimed at more than setting an amazing record.  They are hoping the involvement of schools and universities will have an effect like the Apollo moon shots did back in the 1960’s by bringing in more students into science degrees.

Quote of the article:

Put it this way, if you fired what used to be the most powerful handgun in the world, Dirty Harry's .44 Magnum, at the tail of the rocket/jet car as it passed and Green toggled the 20,500lb thrust hybrid rocket as the revolver went off, the bullet would never hit the car.

I wonder how big a speeding ticket he’d get for that?

But seriously, I’m skeptical they can do it because the low level speed record for an aircraft is only 994 mph.  An aircraft has a lot less friction to deal with -- not only involving air but with no energy being lost to contact with the ground. The other thing worrying is the dual engine concept with a jet engine and a hybrid rocket motor.  That won’t be the easiest thing to work out. It reminds me of Chuck Yeager’s flight in a similarly augmented NF-104A Starfighter that ended in a crash so vividly depicted in The Right Stuff.

Speaking of Starfighters, I’m looking forward to seeing if the North American Eagle team can break 800 mph with an adapted F-104 Starfighter fuselage on wheels. Being very fond of the F-104 in all its incarnations, I’m rooting for their success.  They’ve been ramping up test runs and have run into some problems lately but it doesn’t look project threatening.

Most people don’t know of it, but back in 1979 Stan Barret broke the sound barrier in the Budweiser Rocket Car built by Hal Needham’s team.  Sadly, the first supersonic car run couldn’t be recognized because it had three wheels and only did a one way trip.   Check out the story at YouTube:

Is Science Losing Its Stature?

With the East Anglia “climategate” scandal slowly starting to get a little media attention, I’ve found out I’m not the only one worrying it will tarnish all scientific research.  At the Wall Street Journal, Daniel Henniger has an opinion piece warning that the credibility of all science is at risk.  In it he brings up some valid points why this may happen and this quote gets to the heart of the dilemma:

Global warming enlisted the collective reputation of science. Because "science" said so, all the world was about to undertake a vast reordering of human behavior at almost unimaginable financial cost.

There is great danger in mixing politics and science, but I’ll only address the biggest and possibly least perceived danger. That being the loss of stature in the public eye. Over at Hot Air, Ed Morrissey breaks down the Rasmussen Reports poll that shows 59% believe data on global warming has been falsified.  What is amazing in these polarized times is that majorities across the strata believe this. If that isn’t a loss of credibility, I don’t know what is.

I’ve always thought AGW was based on faith rather than hard science as that massive nuclear furnace in the center of our solar system dictates more than we fully comprehend. Perhaps it is because I remember two previous panics that were widespread.  In the 1970’s it was the fear of another ice age that some of the AGW scientists actually pushed back then.  Later on the terror of the hole in the ozone layer dominated the media and led to a banning of CFC’s to reduce damage to it. In these I see the arrogance of man combined with the allure of hysteria making for bad science driven by the politics of anti-capitalism.

Shifting gears a bit, it doesn’t help that we are starting to hit some hard walls with scientific research producing practical results. While the search for knowledge is a good thing, in the end most of it needs to deliver something of use to humanity in general. This is particularly true in medical research.

The Telegraph has a sobering article about the diminishing returns of the huge amounts of money thrown into medical science.  While I think the title of the article is overly pessimistic or sensational, it is hard to argue that we aren’t getting our moneys worth.  Such high hopes were placed on the human genome project that it couldn’t possibly live up to expectations.

Unfortunately, it is not looking good there and if science is done objectively as is suggested in this article, it may open a Pandora’s Box of political and racial problems.  The promise of finding the causes of diseases and ways to treat them with gene cocktails has not had much success so far, possibly due to the small sample. Geoffrey Miller posits that the research will instead go in another direction once wider sampling is done:

The trouble is, the resequencing data will reveal much more about human evolutionary history and ethnic differences than they will about disease genes. Once enough DNA is analysed around the world, science will have a panoramic view of human genetic variation across races, ethnicities and regions. We will start reconstructing a detailed family tree that links all living humans, discovering many surprises about mis-attributed paternity and covert mating between classes, castes, regions and ethnicities.

In the pop culture, the original Star Trek television series speculated that there will be a eugenics war between genetically enhanced and superior humans with the rest of humanity.  That is where we got the memorable villain, Khan.  If we do get the kind of research suggested, I don’t think that scenario is too far fetched.  The wealthy will want to tinker with their progeny and I can see state run programs in totalitarian states wanting to achieve dominance in a genetic arms race. Worse, I can see racial strife based on both rejection and embracing of the studies coming out of the research.

All of that could lead to an extreme neo-Luddite reaction, especially if science has already become viewed as just another political football. The last people to see that coming will be the scientists themselves due to their living in insulated academic bubbles.  Perhaps more transparency and less politics would help, but it needs to happen quickly before the public consigns science to the trash heap of politics.

Only Yesterday (1991) Review

A thoughtful and emotional film from the director of Grave of the Fireflies, Isao Takahata, it couldn’t be more different than that grim story. This story of a woman flashing back on her memories from fifth grade as she takes her summer vacation may sound boring, but it is filled with poignant moments with an incredibly emotional ending.  While aimed mainly at women, the movie managed to be a surprise hit with both genders in Japan and saved Studio Ghibli from financial ruin.

This is one of the hardest to find films by Studio Ghibli in the United States, since it has never been released here on DVD and, according to Wikipedia, never will be.  I was fortunate to catch it on Turner Classic Movies during their Hiyao Miyazaki month and as far as I know that was the only broadcast over here.

The movie starts out with a typically great Studio Ghibli score over the long opening credits which are shown over a fabric texture.  Right away, you get the feeling this will be a slow moving film. Finally the movie starts with a shot of skyscrapers in crowded Tokyo.  Quickly cutting to the interior of one of them, where we are treated to the images of hum drum office work. 

There we are introduced to Taeko, who is getting her ten day vacation approved.  The personnel director notices that she is planning on traveling and inquires if it is due to a breakup.  Slightly embarrassed, she replies no and that she likes going to the countryside.

Without warning, the movie shifts to a flashback when Taeko was ten and in the fifth grade.  It is done without any kind of fadeout and sets the pattern for the rest of the movie. The animation style is different, with washed out watercolors for the backgrounds and muted tones for the characters.

Economic Worries in Europe

Plus a Black Friday Update

There are a couple of worrisome reports from the Telegraph today, one about Germany and the other about the UK.

Germany

Chancellor Angela Merkel has proposed another bank bailout in Germany as part of another large economic package.  This is not a popular idea with the public and I sense a hint of desperation involved.  Another credit contraction has been predicted with 90 billion Euros of bad loans being written off in 2010.

A survey by Munich's IFO institute revealed yesterday that lending conditions in Germany had tightened sharply in November. Some 53pc of large manufacturing companies found credit hard to obtain, suggesting that the problem has spread beyond small firms without access to the bond markets. "The financing situation of firms remains critical and poses a risk to economic recovery," said the group's president, Hans-Werner Sinn.

If the problem is spreading to the larger industries in Germany, that spells trouble for all of Europe because they are the manufacturing engine of the EU.  What worries me even more is the solution Mr. Sinn proposes:

He said it was an error for the government to buy toxic debt, urging Berlin to direct equity stakes in the banks through partial nationalisations.

Oh great, fascism in Germany, what could go wrong with that?  It makes bailing the banks out look good by comparison.

Interesting stuff, but the quote of the article involves something I think is happening in the US as well:

Volker Treier, chief economist for the German chamber of industry and commerce (DIHK), said worries were mounting among Mittelstand family firms. "The real test has yet to come: the drastic decline in sales has not yet shown up in balance sheets," he said.

I have to wonder what our balance sheets really look like. Creative accounting may be hiding a lot of bad news.

United Kingdom

Over in Britain, Morgan Stanley has warned that the UK may have a massive debt crisis next year. The US company’s prediction is that the economy there will collapse completely, taking the pound sterling down another 10%. Oddly enough, they think the dollar will go up, so I am taking their analysis with a shaker of salt.

Quote of the article:

While the report – “Tougher Times in 2010” – is not linked to the Dubai debacle, it is a reminder that countries merely bought time during the crisis by resorting to fiscal stimulus and shunting private losses onto public books. The rescues – though necessary – have not resolved the underlying debt problem. They have storied up a second set of difficulties by degrading sovereign debt across much of the world.

Boy that really gets to the point.  All these stimulus packages and bailouts have been stall tactics with long term negative consequences. When all is said and done, historians will look back and point to them as madness.  Well, except for utopians who think government solves everything, I don’t think that will ever go away.

Black Friday in the USA

Here in the States, Black Friday weekend sales were disappointing as while there were more shoppers, they each spent less. Unemployment and under-employment still loom large with no relief in sight. Personal debt is at suffocating levels too. Is it any wonder people are spending less?  Hoping the consumer will bail us out is ridiculous as long as there is high unemployment.

Wish I could find some good economic news for the future.

M-4 to Get Pistons

This is great news and an amusing headline.

My own title looks like nonsense to anyone who isn’t into guns, I suspect.  For those who don’t know what it means, there have been complaints about the reliability of the M-4, the current derivative of the venerable M-16 assault rifle.  Most of the complaints have to do with the way the action works, being a direct gas system. 

For the layman, direct gas systems take the expanding propellant gases from each round fired to push the bolt back and load another round. Direct is what it sounds like; the gases go straight back into the receiver.  That means a lot of gunpowder fouling of the receiver which is the most important part of the weapon.  The more fouling the easier it is to jam in the middle of a firefight.

A piston system siphons off the expanding gases into a separate chamber where they push a piston that in turn moves a rod that transfers the energy to the bolt.  That keeps the bulk of gunpowder residue up in the piston area where there are fewer moving parts.  With a cleaner receiver there are far fewer jams, as the article shows.

There are complaints that short piston equipped M-16/AR-15 rifles are front heavy and the M-4 was designed to be light and compact.  But a weapon that is more reliable while keeping all the other good traits is worth the trade off, I think. If I had the money, I’d get a piston AR-15 rather than the classic design.  But I like front heavy rifles and heavy rifles period.

This modification is something I’d hoped the Army would do years ago.

LHC Ramps Up the Power

More good news from CERN, the Large Hadron Collider hit 1.18 trillion electron volts in the wee hours of the morning. It looks like it is finally overcoming the technical problems that stalled the program.  Still waiting for the first proton smashing but they are hopeful of doing that before Christmas.

Climate Change Scandal Taints Science

I’ve avoided writing on the University of East Anglia’s Climate Research Unit having their files “hacked” because it is hard to get worked up over the turning battle over man made global warming. The majority of people have now realized that this is bogus movement with the tipping point happening some time this year. Still, a significant percentage still believe in this junk science so the revelations of data tampering exposed by the documents has done quite a bit of damage.  Christopher Booker’s commentary at the Telegraph lays out why this is such an important scandal and I highly advise reading it.

This needed to be brought to the light like any politically driven pseudo science, but I fear there will be fallout across the board tainting the public perception of scientific research.  The old problem of a few rotten eggs ruining things is something I’ve worried about. An example of how science is now getting a negative reputation can be found in the hysteria that starting the CERN supercollider would create a black hole. The earth will be sucked into and we’ll all die!

Yes, people have little understanding of scientific method and I blame our pathetic public education system for that. The bad eggs in politicized junk science have aggravated the problem as they use sensationalism to obtain large grants.  Maybe it is time to seriously audit all research grants to see how the money is actually spent and see if there is graft going on. Of course, that would be negative publicity for scientific research again. *sigh*

We still have to get the truth and I hope this scandal will have a chilling effect on corrupt scientists.

Dubai Financial Problems Get Worse

I’m still watching with keen interest what is going on with the collapse of Dubai’s commercial real estate ventures.  Dubai World is not going to be bailed out or their debt backed up by the government of the small nation. $60 billion in liabilities will not be paid back and this is going to cause quite a few problems for the UK banks.  The Bank of Scotland may be on the hook for billions of dollars but things are murky yet.

An intervention by the central bank of the United Arab Emirates has helped markets recover, but I don’t see how a liquidity infusion will help a solvency problem in the long term.  It may not even help in the short term other than to temporarily reassure the stock markets.  Whatever the case, this may be another canary in the coal mine. I fully expect bank failures to come out of this.

Black Friday and a Hint of Black Tuesday

Another day and more bad economic news.

It is the day after Thanksgiving, when minds turn toward shopping for Christmas presents that often go to oneself. It will be interesting to see how all the sales go, some stores and online firms have had them going all week already. My gut feeling is that they will be down because high unemployment combined with overextended credit means no money to spend.  Personally, I can’t afford gifts or even to mail Christmas cards this year, unless I find a way to get extra cash – which is very hard for a chronically ill disabled guy.

But I doubt I’m alone in this boat.  One of the shoes I’ve been predicting to drop has been the hidden problems with commercial real estate loans. Nobody has been more ambitious in growing their commercial land than Dubai and things have come to a head there.  The city state of Dubai has asked for a suspension of their loan payments for six month and that has spooked the world markets today.  UK banks are particularly at risk due to this, but the ripple effect looks to be large and spanning the globe.  The Dow Jones opened with a 200 point slide before stabilizing around 150 points down.

Meanwhile, the dollar continues to slide.  I wouldn’t consider Japan to be that strong an economy due to its going into deflation. So if the US dollar is so weak against it what does it say about the US economy?  We will be seeing considerable inflation as this continues and that in turn will depress domestic spending even further.

Oil is down as well, going below $75 a barrel due to the Dubai crisis. I remember when a crisis was a much bigger thing, but that is the media for you.  Gold and precious metals are down for the same reason but that will be temporary as foreign central banks move out of the US dollar.

All the ballyhooing going on by various governments that the recession is over seems to be more propaganda (and wishful thinking) than reality.  The instability still remains and the world market reactions reflect it. With commercial real estate investments set to blow up and only a lull in the home loan failures, much will go wrong with in the next 10 months.

A Time to Give Thanks

It is that time of year again, the time of turkeys, cranberry sauce, and relatives gathering together.  In our case, two out of three apply – we have turkey and cranberry sauce.  But what is this holiday called Thanksgiving is really about?

It helps to flash back to those struggling Puritan settlers; you know them, the guys with with the funny black hats and muskets that look like some guy should be playing a jazz tune through. Colonizing untamed lands was not easy and starvation was a constant threat.  Early attempts at communal farming were a failure and the colonists were fortunate to be given charity by a local tribe of American Indians.  Not starving to death was something to be very grateful for and so was the ability to practice their religion without government interference or persecution.

Flash forward to today and compare our lives to their hard scrabble existence.  Even though times are tough by modern standards there is much to be grateful for.  We are yet free and live in a land of abundance. While times are tough at the Boonedocks right now and won’t be getting any better in the foreseeable future, I am thankful that I have a roof over my head, food to eat, heat to keep me warm, and electricity to power the PC I’m typing this on.  There are people who don’t have those things or are facing horrendous trials in their lives.

My prayer for this Thanksgiving:

I thank Thee, oh Father, for the blessings I enjoy. May those shattered families and individuals suffering today know comfort and healing, find their strengths that they have lost or not discovered, and know that redemption can be found by all of God’s children.  May they know hope and peace during these hard times and find inspiration from those who have gone before them. Please help them to feel Thy love for them and remind them that they have the divine within them.  Please help those of us who are blessed be better servants to those in need. In the name of the Savior, Jesus Christ. Amen.

Why I Don’t Listen to Glenn Beck

Glenn Beck has gotten very popular over the past few years on both radio and TV.  He is at times very amusing and comes off  as a mix between a sideshow barker and that crazy uncle every family has. The red phone to the White House is an all time classic of political satire and a good example of how pointedly funny he can be.  He’s also gotten some important things out into the public eye that needed exposure.

But I’ve had issues with Beck’s behavior. Much mockery has been made of his loss of emotional control on air and for good reason. There is a dark side to his shtick and that is the pervasive severe paranoia he exhibits accompanied by grandiose beliefs in his own power to sway people. In that way he is a classic populist and the danger of populists is that they are often one step from becoming demagogues. 

Beck has increasingly been acting messianic, first with the 9/12 Project and now with an undefined march on Washington scheduled for next year.  While these things look good on paper, please note that every time he does something along these lines there is a new book being released or about to be released.  Lately I’ve found myself asking if it is money or delusion that fuels him -- or both? One thing I never had questioned is his patriotism.

Until now.

Calling for our young men and women to stop enlisting in the military goes so far over the line as to negate anything positive Beck has done in the past.  At this point, any conservative credentials can only be considered partial as it is clear he does not understand the troops or why they serve. I consider strong defense to be second most important leg of the Reagan stool of conservatism.  Yes what is being done to the Navy SEALS is reprehensible at face value and if the story is true, we have reason to make heads roll in the military and White House over it.  Note to Beck: the country isn’t the government and THE COUNTRY WILL STAND BEHIND THE SOLDIERS.  This isn’t Vietnam where the public abandoned our veterans. I know lefties who show more support of the troops and their mission than Beck just did.

If he believes the military will be one day used against the people of the country (and I think he does) discouraging patriotic conservatives from serving will make that easier to pull off.  Right there is a logic fail of epic proportions.  When things finally do start falling apart, I personally believe a big chunk of the armed forces, active and retired, will be the ones fighting for restoring liberty to this land.  You don’t want the people who listen to talk radio and watch Fox News to leave the military.

Glenn was always a weak sister during the war in Iraq and has shown isolationist tendencies much like Ron Paul, another destructive pseudo conservative. The world will come to us like it did on 9/11 even if we ignore it.  Isolationism is the last refuge of the coward and often a mask for someone who wants total control of their country.  That’s why it is galling to see libertarian types fall for the philosophy when it is antithetical to freedom and individuality in the long run.

One might point out the emotion of Beck’s dealing with his family members who have enlisted.  I have a young friend who enlisted in the Army last year.  While he is not active duty, the opportunity to go to Iraq happened and I spoke with him about the decision.  Without going into the details, we spoke about the pros and cons of going now instead of waiting to get out of college and being commissioned an officer. Never once did it occur to me to dissuade him due to Obama being president or his safety being guaranteed.

The young man decided to go only to have the offer yanked out from under him – college it is, at least for a year.  He had my full support in his decision, as hasty as it might be.  I agreed with his mother’s assessment that “Dying in service is still dying in service to God.” 

In the end, service in the military is about service to our country and its people.  The oath sworn by every man and woman in our armed services is to the Constitution, not Congress, not the President. Glenn Beck would do well to remember that.

I don’t like how media figures influence things so disproportionately and I’m on record as not being a fan of them whether or not they are on my side politically. This episode illustrates why.  At some point, the perceived power they have goes to their heads.  Being entertainers first, they often shoot their mouths off and do damage to their own side. But a bigger problem is how much faith their listeners and viewers put into them.

That is why I don’t listen to people like Glenn Beck and prefer to cull my news from a wide variety of sources.  Broadcast and cable news/commentary are distorted by the lens of entertainment – or spectacle, if you will. I’m a Joe Friday kind of guy wanting “Just the facts, ma’am.”  We’ve got fiction for entertainment and it is dangerous when it passes for news.